Daytona 500 Odds and Picks

Are you ready to pick the winner of this year’s Daytona 500? It is never easy to pick restrictor plate races and the Daytona 500 is no exception. Last year it was Michael McDowell shocking everyone at big odds to win the race. It could be another surprise in Sunday’s Daytona 500, especially with NASCAR rolling out the “Next Gen” cars.  The cars debuted earlier this month in the Busch Clash but now is when they get their first real test.  Denny Hamlin is listed as the Daytona 500 betting favorite at odds of +900.  Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 winner so it makes some sense he is favored, but Sunday’s race is really a crap shoot. Let’s look at the race and Daytona 500 picks.

Daytona 500 Odds

Denny Hamlin +900

Chase Elliott +950

Kyle Larson +1000

Joey Logano +1200

Ryan Blaney +1200

Kyle Busch +1500

William Byron +1500

Brad Keselowski +1600

Kurt Busch +1700

Alex Bowman +1800

Austin Dillon +1800

Kevin Harvick +1800

Bubba Wallace +2000

Martin Truex Jr. +2000

Aric Almirola +2200

Austin Cindric +2500

Christopher Bell +2500

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. +2500

Tyler Reddick +2500

Justin Haley +3500

Chris Buescher +4000

Daniel Hemric +4000

Greg Biffle +4000

Ross Chastain +4000

Erik Jones +5000

Chase Briscoe +5500

Corey LaJoie +5500

Cole Custer +6600

Daniel Suarez +6600

Michael McDowell +6600

David Ragan +7000

Harrison Burton +8000

Matt DiBenedetto +8000

All other drivers are listed with odds of +10000 or more.

Don’t expect to see as much action as you are used to in this year’s Daytona 500. With NASCAR switching to the Next Gen cars, teams simply don’t have as many backup cars as they are used to having. That means drivers will be far more cautious than normal in this year’s race.

"We used to come down here [to Daytona] with one or two backup cars for each [driver] just in case things happen," Ryan Blaney said to the media, "Now we're sitting on a couple for your whole organization. That's been difficult, and you have to have that in the back of your head."

The big wreck that usually occurs in the Daytona 500 may not happen until late in the race. "All of that I just said, all that reason and measured adult thinking, that never applies to the Daytona 500.” Blaney said to the media, “Certainly not when the checkered flag is in sight."

Daytona 500 Handicapping

You can throw out almost all of the handicapping when it comes to restrictor plate races because almost any driver can win. Hamlin is the favorite and there may still be a little value on him at 9-1, but there is far more value elsewhere. There are some big-name drivers still looking for their first Daytona 500 victory including Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott.

If you think a rookie is going to win this year, and the Daytona 500 is one of the few races where they have a realistic chance, then Austin Cindric has some value at +2500 and Harrison Burton is listed at +8000.

Daytona 500 Picks

Hamlin is listed as the favorite and he is definitely capable of winning this race again, but I have a hard time taking any driver listed at single-digit odds in a restrictor plate race. This race is all about drivers at odds of 20-1 or more for me. One of the drivers that immediately stuck out to me at odds of +2000 is Martin Truex Jr. He is almost always in contention because of his talent and because he has an excellent team. He hasn’t had the best luck in the Daytona 500 but this year’s race figures to be a bit calmer. I think Truex Jr. has some value at +2000.

There are a couple of longshots I think are worth considering. McDowell won this race last year and it was not a fluke. He was really good in restrictor plate races last season and I am very surprised he is not getting more respect. There is no reason he can’t win this race again and we get him at +6600.  Another longshot to consider is Daniel Suarez. I wouldn’t take him in anything other than a restrictor plate race, but he is capable of driving up front and all you need to be is in the lead pack to have a chance in this race and Suarez could hit at big price of +6600.

Check out the latest Daytona 500 odds at top online sportsbooks.