UFC 246 Odds - Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone Predictions

PUBLISHED: Wednesday, January 15th, 2020
LAST UPDATE: 10:57 am, Thu, January 16, 2020

UFC 246 Odds - Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone Predictions
Lightweight superstar Conor McGregor (21-4, 18 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet veteran Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (36-13, 10 KOs, 17 SUBs) at UFC 246 on Saturday, January 18, 2020 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main card airs live on pay-per-view...

Date & Time
January 18th, 2020 10:00pm
T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
Media Coverage
Lightweight superstar Conor McGregor (21-4, 18 KOs, 1 SUB) will meet veteran Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (36-13, 10 KOs, 17 SUBs) at UFC.

The UFC is kicking off a new decade by showcasing its biggest superstar: “The Notorious” Conor McGregor returns to the octagon this Saturday to meet Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in the main event of UFC 246 in Las Vegas.

Any fight featuring the Irishman is a big one, but this isn’t quite the spectacle we’re used to with McGregor. There is no belt on the line, no heated rivalry - not even much trash talk. From the start, fans and media have treated this as a tuneup fight. It’s been years since the former two-division champion has had his hand raised in the octagon, and while he can fight whoever he wants, it’s getting tougher to justify cutting the line without wins.

Our top five online sportsbooks opened with McGregor as a big favorite, confirming the sentiment that Cowboy is being used as a stepping stone. On top of that, all the early action has been on the Irishman, driving his line from -230 to -320 in just a month’s time. Come fight night, we wouldn’t be surprised to see him close around -350. In that same time, Cowboy’s money line has gone up from +150 to +240.

That’s got to sting if you’re Cowboy - he’s a professional athlete who is being treated like a scrub when the truth is that he was a welterweight title contender just a few years ago. He only needs to click any MMA site to get motivation for the fight - most of them are completely overlooking him and speculating on who McGregor will fight next.

Does that give you an opportunity to cash in an underdog? Or are there other bets you should be considering in our top-rated online sportsbooks? Let’s dive into the best online bets and break down your best values. Live UFC betting is also available at any of these sportsbooks as well.

Bet UFC odds at the online sportsbook
Conor McGregor -350
Donald Cerrone +260
Fight goes/doesn’t go to decision: +450 / -675

Significant Striking Stats
Strikes landed per minute: McGregor 5.27 / Cerrone 4.34
Striking accuracy: McGregor 48% / Cerrone 46%
Strikes absorbed per minute: McGregor 4.43 / Cerrone 4.23
Striking defense: McGregor 55% / Cerrone 53%

Grappling Stats
Takedowns per 15 minutes: McGregor 0.75 / Cerrone 1.21
Takedown accuracy: McGregor 62% / Cerrone 36%
Takedown defense: McGregor 70% / Cerrone 73%
Submission average: McGregor 0 / Cerrone 1.3

UFC Odds Pick: McGregor to win by TKO/KO at -235
UFC Odds Pick: McGregor to win inside the distance -250
McGregor picked a good time to fight Cowboy: Cerrone has lost two straight (by knockout), six of 10 overall, and has been knocked out in five of those losses. At 36 years old, Cowboy ain’t done - but he’s clearly declined from his peak. There are a number of exploitable holes in his game, and a few just happen to play into McGregor’s strengths.

The most obvious advantage for the Irishman is that he’s an aggressive southpaw - Cerrone historically hasn’t fared well against lefties, and pressure fighters give him a lot of trouble. Tony Ferguson beat him to a pulp, and Darren Till and Justin Gaethje basically just marched him down and took him out quickly. It’s hard not to visualize McGregor stalking forward to slip and rip away.

We recommend taking McGregor to win inside the distance. His straight up money line is too expensive, and you can get a much better payout with a slight risk. McGregor has only been to decision twice in 25 fights, and Cerrone’s chin has showed some real cracks lately. Hoping to make a big statement to start the year, McGregor will show up in fine form and put away the vet.

UFC Odds Pick: McGregor to win inside the distance.