Stanley Cup Final Odds – Lightning at Canadiens Game 3

The Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Montreal Canadiens in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final on Friday night on NBC. The Lightning lead the best-of-seven series 2-0 after winning two games at home and now the series shifts to Montreal for the next two games. Friday’s contest is virtually a must-win for the Canadiens, as coming back from an 0-3 hole against Tampa would be almost impossible. Let’s look at Stanley Cup Finals odds for Game 3 and hockey picks.

Stanley Cup Final Game 3 Odds

Tampa Bay -140

Montreal +120

Total 5 over

The early money on this game is on the Canadiens, as the line opened with the Lightning listed as a -150 favorite. If Montreal is to win a game in this series it would seem logical that it would be Game 3, but the problem with taking the Canadiens is that they just played their best game of the series and lost. Game 3 takes place on Friday night on NBC with a start time just after 8 p.m. Eastern Time.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens have not had much of a home ice advantage this season. They were 13-11-4 at home in the regular season. The Lightning were okay on the road, going 15-10-3 in road games. The Canadiens are struggling to score goals in the playoffs, as they are averaging just 2.4 goals per game. They are allowing 2.4 goals per game in the playoffs.  Tampa is averaging 3.3 goals and giving up just 2 goals per game in the playoffs.

As noted earlier, the problem for Montreal is that they played a good game on Wednesday and still lost. The Lightning did not play that well, but they have the best goaltender in the world in Andrei Vasilevsky and he made 42 saves in the Game 2 win. Montreal goaltender Carey Price gets a lot of attention from the media, but the reality is that Vasilevsky is already a Stanley Cup champion and he takes his play up a level in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Montreal was able to contain Tampa Bay stars Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos, but the Lightning are a very deep team and in Game 2 it was Anthony Cirelli, Blake Coleman and Ondrej Palat who scored for Tampa Bay. The Canadiens outshot Tampa 43-23 but only got one goal. “I thought we had a good bounce-back game. Had a lot of chances. Just got to find ways to put the puck in the back of the net, myself included,” said Montreal’s Nick Suzuki to the media.

Montreal is trying to stay positive even though they are down two games to none. “The message is, don’t stop doing what we’ve been doing all playoffs. You look at what happened in the first round, we were down 3-1,” Corey Perry said to the media, “We stayed focused, stayed with our game plan, never changed, never did anything and continued to push. It’s no different now.”

Game Notes

The Canadiens are fighting some series history, as teams that go up 2-0 in the Stanley Cup Finals have gone on to win 90% of the time.  Tampa is 25-10 in their last 35 playoff games as a favorite. Tampa is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Montreal.

The Under is 9-1-3 in Tampa’s last 13 road games. The Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in this series and the Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Montreal.

Stanley Cup Finals Game 3 Pick

I know that most people are thinking that Montreal will win Game 3, but I have two major problems with taking the Canadiens. First, Tampa is the better team across the board than Montreal. In previous matchups in the playoffs, the Canadiens had the edge in goal but they don’t have that advantage in this series.  Price is a good goaltender, but Vasilevsky is slightly better. And Montreal has no advantage in terms of scoring and defense, as Tampa is simply better all over the ice. Second, the Canadiens just played their best game and Tampa played their worst game and the Lightning still won. I expect Tampa to be better in Game 3 so I will take the Lightning and also play the game under the total.

Check out the latest Stanley Cup odds at top online sportsbooks.