Week 8 Best Bets

Just when I think I’m turning a corner, I run into a brick wall. My Week 7 NFL Best Bets went 1-3 ATS with the only winner being the Cincinnati Bengals covering by a half point against the Cleveland Browns. Cincinnati was largely fortunate in that game too as the Bengals had just 223 total yards and 12 first downs, and the Bengals needed an opening kickoff return touchdown to ensure the cover. 

Elsewhere, New England got off to a strong start against Jacksonville in London taking a 10-0 lead in the second quarter despite being close to a touchdown underdog per the NFL betting odds. However, the Patriots fell apart after that, surrendering 25 straight points including a 96-yard punt return touchdown. The Los Angeles Rams failed to cover the number against the Las Vegas Raiders, but my most dismal bet was on the New York Giants. I believed the Giants had a great chance to pull off the upset at home against the Philadelphia Eagles, yet they could only muster 119 total yards in a 28-3 beatdown.

YTD 11-15 ATS

Week 8 NFL Betting Odds and Picks

Cleveland Browns +9 vs. Baltimore Ravens

Although the Cleveland Browns are 1-6 and yet to win a game at home so far this season, they have yet to call it quits. Cleveland battled against Cincinnati last week, and the Browns may have found just the spark they need in Jameis Winston. There’s no denying that Winston is a high variance quarterback, but he knows how to motivate a team and is a breath of fresh air. Baltimore has won five straight games and has scored at least 20 points in every game so far this season, but Cleveland’s defense has largely done a good job slowing down Lamar Jackson in their previous meetings.

Green Bay Packers -4.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The NFC North is the best division in football, and the Green Bay Packers gritted out a tough win against the Houston Texans last week. Now, they will be taking on a Jacksonville Jaguars squad that is going to have some jet lag after two straight games in London, and the Jaguars are being given far too much credit after beating a bad New England team last Sunday. Additionally, while the vast majority of teams receive a bye week after playing in London, the Jaguars opted to have their bye week later in the season.

Jordan Love has thrown a whopping eight interceptions in five games, but Love is still young and relatively raw. Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in the league and ranks dead last in red zone defense and interceptions forced, so I expect Love to light up the Jaguars’ secondary.

Las Vegas Raiders +10 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the NFL’s last unbeaten team with a 6-0 record, but the Chiefs have been awfully fortunate. Their average margin of victory is just 7.2 points, and their only great offensive performance this season came against the New Orleans Saints. 

Patrick Mahomes just hasn’t been himself. Mahomes has completed 67.9% of his passes for just 1,389 yards (7.4 YPA) with only six touchdowns compared to eight interceptions through six games. The run game has struggled too, so it’s been up to the defense to win games. Some pundits are calling for the offense to turn the corner with the news that the Chiefs have acquired DeAndre Hopkins in a trade with the Tennessee Titans, but ‘Nuke’ is not the same receiver he was in Houston.

Under 36.5 in Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants

This number would have to be 31 or 32 for me not to like the ‘Under’. Pittsburgh’s offense did look better with Russell Wilson starting over Justin Fields, but Wilson was far from great last week. His numbers are deceiving as he completed two long 50-50 balls to George Pickens, but he otherwise struggled. The Steelers’ offensive line only allowed him to be sacked once, yet that will change with the New York Giants’ pass rush coming to the Steel City. The Giants know how to get after quarterbacks, and this game will turn into a low-scoring rock fight.