It was a completely different scenario from a few weeks ago when the New England Patriots hammered the Dolphins at home. This time it was the Fins doing the hammering, putting an emphatic end to the Pats eight-game winning streak and preventing them from winning the AFC East title with a 27-20 win. The Pats could have been looking ahead to their Week 15 date with the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that will likely decide which team gets home field advantage in the playoffs.
There are some issues that the Pats need to work on before that game, however. One of them is converting on third down. We haven’t seen a Tom Brady led offense struggle as mightily as it did against the Dolphins when they failed to convert a third-down in 11 chances. That problem should be rectified with the return of Brady’s favorite target Rob Gronkowski, who missed Monday night’s game after getting slapped with a one-game suspension for his pile-drive hit on a Buffalo player the previous game.
But even had Gronk played the Pats likely would have struggled. Miami isn’t Brady’s favorite place to play and again he wasn’t sharp, throwing two picks in a game for the first time in over two years. What makes Brady and the Pats so good is their ability to put a poor effort behind them and move on to the next game. The defense was thinned up front with Trey Flowers inactive and Alan Branch sent to the sideline. That prevented the Pats from getting pressure on Cutler. A better pass rush and a better Brady gives the Pats a good chance of extending their streak over the Steelers.
2017 Record: 10-3
2017 ATS Record: 8-5
2017 Over/Under Total Record: 6-7
Current Super Bowl Odds: +225
Current Odds to Win AFC: +100
Current Odds to Win AFC East: -10000
Current NFL Odds: Check Back Later
Over/Under Total: Check Back Later
Patriots vs. Steelers NFL Preview: The No. 1 seed in the AFC is going to be on the line in the Week 15 duel between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots.
Should Pittsburgh win this game, it will have locked up home field advantage throughout the postseason. If the Patriots go on the road and pull out a victory, they'll be two wins away from having the road to the Super Bowl run through Foxboro. Continue...
Week 14: Dolphins 27, Patriots 20
ATS Result: Dolphins +10.5
Over/Under Total Result: Under 48
The Pats couldn’t get anything going against an inspired Dolphins team. New England took a 7-6 lead in the second quarter with a drive aided by a pass interference penalty. They had no answer for Jay Cutler, who tossed three scoring passes, the last putting the Pats in a 27-10 hole late in the third. New England scored early in the fourth to get within 10, but they went three-and-out on their next three drives and ran out of time.
Week 13: Patriots 23, Bills 3
ATS Result: Patriots -7.5
Over/Under Total Result: Under 48.5
Brady went without a touchdown pass for the first time since the opener, but the Pats still won by 20 to easily cover the spread for a sixth straight game. The run game produced nearly 200 yards with Rex Burkhead scoring twice in the third to put the contest out of reach, and the defense was dominant, holding Buffalo to 268 yards without a touchdown.
Week 12: Patriots 35, Dolphins 17
ATS Result: Patriots -17
Over/Under Total Result: Over 49
The Pats scored the first two times they had the ball and the outcome was never in doubt. The suspense was whether they would cover the 17-point spread. And thanks to Brady’s fourth quarter scoring pass to Brandin Cooks, they did for a fifth straight game. The late score also allowed the over to cash.
Week 11: Patriots 33, Raiders 8
ATS Result: Patriots -7
Over/Under Total Result: Under 55
Brady was masterful completing his first 12 passes and throwing a pair of first-half touchdowns to stake the Pats to a 17-0 halftime lead. He buried Oakland with a deep ball to Brandin Cooks on the first series of the second half and the Pats were never threatened in covering the spread for a fourth straight game. The Pats kept Oakland out of the end zone until the fourth quarter, falling well below the closing total.
Week 10: Patriots 41, Broncos 16
ATS Result: Patriots -7
Over/Under Total Result: Over 45
Brady tossed three scoring passes and the Pats exorcised some demons in their win over the Broncos with a convincing decision. They got plenty of help from Denver, though. After going three-and-out on their first possession, the Pats recovered a muffed punt and Brady tossed his first TD a few plays later for a lead the Pats would not relinquish. They also blocked a punt and had a kickoff return for a TD to cover for a third straight game.
Week 9: BYE
Week 8: Patriots 21, Chargers 13
ATS Result: Patriots -6.5
Over/Under Total Result: Under 49
The Patriots scored just one offensive touchdown, but defense and special teams were solid in a second straight cover. Outside of an 87-yard scoring run from Melvin Gordon, the Pats shut down Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense while getting four Stephen Gostkowski field goals and a safety on punt coverage to cover the 6.5-point line. The offensive struggles, coupled with an improved defense allowed the under to cash for a fourth straight game.
Week 7: Patriots 23, Falcons 7
ATS Result: Patriots -3
Over/Under Total Result: Under 56.5
The Pats scored the first 23 points with the help of Brady’s two TDs and three Stephen Gostkowski field goals, and they let the defense do the rest to cover the 3-point line. It wasn’t the shootout many expected and the total was the highest on the board for the week. The Pats kept Atlanta off the scoreboard until late in the fourth quarter and they easily cashed the under.
Week 6: Patriots 24, Jets 17
ATS Result: Jets +9
Over/Under Total Result: Under 48.5
The Pats overcame a 14-point deficit by rolling out 24 unanswered points to get the win. It wasn’t pretty and they benefitted from a replay review that overturned a Jets touchdown. It wasn’t the crispest outing from Brady, who threw for 258 yards on 38 attempts, but the Pats came away with the win. A late Jets field goal allowed them to cover the 9-point spread and the under cashed for a second straight game.
Week 5: Patriots 19, Buccaneers 14
ATS Result: Patriots -3.5
Over/Under Total Result: Under 54.5
The Pats got a lot of help from Tampa’s suspect kicking game, but the defense came up with a stop when the Bucs had a chance to win the game on the final possession. It was a much-needed stand and one that came a week after the Pats lost on a last-second field goal. Brady put up good numbers, but a pair of turnovers squelched drives and kept the score below the closing total for the first time this season.
Week 4: Panthers 33, Patriots 30
ATS Result: Panthers +9
Over/Under Total Result: Over 48
The Pats have surpassed the closing total in every game thanks to an offense that ranks second in scoring and a defense that ranks next to last. Brady threw for over 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns but was overshadowed by Cam Newton’s 316 yards and three scores as New England failed to cover as a heavy a heavy favorite for the second straight week.
Week 3: Patriots 36, Texans 33
ATS Result: Texans +13.5
Over/Under Total Result: Over 44.5
The Pats needed every big of Brady’s 378 passing yards and five scores to overcome the Texans in a game that saw them favored by two touchdowns. New England didn’t cover, but they were thrilled to get out with a win on Brady’s scoring toss to Cooks with 25 seconds left on the clock. Defense continues to be a sore spot, but with Brady lighting it up, the total was exceeded early in the third quarter.
Week 2: Patriots 36, Saints 20
ATS Result: Patriots -5.5
Over/Under Total Result: Over 55
Just like in their opener, the Pats took the opening kickoff and marched down the field for a touchdown to take the lead. This time, the Pats kept coming and also played a little defense. Brady tossed three first quarter scoring passes to build a 20-3 lead. Up 27-13 late in the first half, the Saints turned the ball over on downs at the Pats 25. New England moved down the field and converted a field goal as time expired for a 30-13 bulge at the break. The Saints scored with 5:04 left in the game to surpass the total, giving the Pats a 2-0 mark on the over.
Week 1: Chiefs 42, Patriots 27
ATS Result: Chiefs +8
Over/Under Total Result: Over 47.5
Not only did the Pats fail to cover the 8-point spread, they lost outright for just the third time in their last 20 contests when favored by at least eight points. Their inability to slow down Smith, Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt also gave over bettors a victory in the third quarter.
Preseason Record: 1-3
ATS Record: 1-3
Over/Under Total Record: 4-0
The Pats had to part with their third quarterback Jacoby Brissett to get Dorsett, leaving Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo as the only QB’s on the roster. Outside of the 2008 season when he tore up his knee in the opener, Brady hasn’t missed a start due to injury since. Brady was sacked just 15 times last season and he had his highest completion percentage in nearly a decade. The line may be better this year and Brady will have plenty of opportunities to pick opponents apart.
Week 1: Patriots vs. Chiefs, Thursday, September 7, 8:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Week 2: Patriots at Saints, Sunday, September 17, 1 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 3: Patriots vs. Texans, Sunday, September 24, 1 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 4: Patriots vs. Panthers, Sunday, October 1, 1 p.m. ET – FOX
Week 5: Patriots at Buccaneers, Thursday, October 5, 8:25 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 6: Patriots at Jets, Sunday, October 15, 1 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 7: Patriots vs. Falcons, Sunday, October 22, 8:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Week 8: Patriots vs. Chargers, Sunday, October 29, 1 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 9: Bye Week
Week 10: Patriots at Broncos, Sunday, November 12, 8:30 p.m. ET – NBC
Week 11: Patriots at Raiders, Sunday, November 19, 4:25 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 12: Patriots vs. Dolphins, Sunday, November 26, 1 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 13: Patriots at Bills, Sunday, December 3, 1 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 14: Patriots at Dolphins, Monday, December 11, 8:30 p.m. ET – ESPN
Week 15: Patriots at Steelers, Sunday, December 17, 4:25 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 16: Patriots vs. Bills, Sunday, December 24, 1 p.m. ET – CBS
Week 17: Patriots vs. Jets, Sunday, December 31, 1 p.m. ET – CBS
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