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UFC on FOX 25 Odds - Betting Previews and Common Sense Quick Picks

UFC on FOX 25 Betting Odds

This Saturday’s UFC on FOX 25 offers meaningful divisional matchups all over the card, with a bunch or ranked contenders heading to Long Island for bunch of different reasons. For headliner and hometown Chris Weidman, it’s all about staying relevant at 185 pounds. His opponent, Kelvin Gastelum, would love to enter the title mix by scalping a former champ.

Top 12 featherweights Dennis Bermudez and Darren Elkins projects to be a brutal war, but both men are just trying to establish a place in the top 10. The same goes for light heavyweights Patrick Cummins and Gian Villante in their matchup.

For once-beaten bantamweights Jimmie Rivera and Thomas Almeida, their pairing will produce a legitimate title contender in a division that’s suddenly very top heavy. There’s a lot of ground to cover, so let’s get right into the UFC odds at and go over some of the night’s notable scraps.

Bet on UFC odds

Main Event

Chris Weidman +151

Kelvin Gastelum -191

Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -160, under +130

Common Sense Betting

It’s hard to bet on a guy whose career is spiraling downward, and Weidman is free falling like Tom Petty right now. The “All-American” hasn’t just lost three straight, he’s been starched each time by some very violent men. Though he’s just 33, he’s aging fast.

Gastelum has a ton of physical advantages here: he’s younger, faster and has taken less punishment throughout his career. If Weidman can’t take him down, the 25 year old’s fast hands and precision punching is gonna make this fight lopsided real quick.

The time to bet on Gastelum was a few weeks ago, when he was around -140. Now, as a nearly 2-1 favorite, his money line isn’t so enticing. Still, Weidman isn’t a big enough underdog to really warrant a bet. Stick with Gastelum.

UFC odds pick: Gastelum to win at -191


Dennis Bermudez -200

Darren Elkins +160

Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -265, under +210

Common Sense Betting

Let’s get one thing straight: Elkins upsetting uber-prospect Mirsad Bektic was a once-in-a-decade type comeback. Props to “The Damage” for pulling out one of the biggest upsets in recent memory, but expecting him to do that on a regular basis is a good way to lose your hard-earned money.

Bermudez is more experienced against better competition, has stupid punching power and can always fall back to his wrestling. In fact, his takedowns will likely be the difference-maker against Elkins, who has always had trouble staying off his back. There are simply more paths to victory for Bermudez here, though Elkins won’t make it easy.

UFC odds pick: Bermudez to win at -200


Jimmie Rivera -200

Thomas Almeida +160

Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -200, under +160

Common Sense Betting

Here’s your dark horse pick for Fight of the Night. Both Almeida and Rivera are super aggressive fighters that love to pressure opponents and light ‘em up with power shots. Rivera, a short, stocky fighter is all about getting inside and landing tight, technical combinations, while Almeida has got that violent Chute Box style that’s led to 17 KOs in 21 career victories.

Though Almeida’s flashy KO ratio is tempting, Rivera is the choice. His low center of gravity makes him a clinch nightmare, and that’s exactly the type of style a fighter needs to stifle Almeida’s explosive striking. Expect the Brazilian’s back to be against the cage for the majority of the fight.

UFC odds pick: Rivera to win at -200

Light Heavyweight

Gian Villante -180

Patrick Cummins +140

Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -190, under +150

Common Sense Betting

Tough call here, as both men are gutsy fighters without a clear dominating skillset. Cummins is a good wrestler, but lacks the explosiveness to overwhelm opponents. Villante is a solid striker with heavy hands, but doesn’t have the athleticism to be a true killer.

This will come down to whether Cummins can get the take downs and maintain top control. Villante might be slow, but he does have 81% takedown defense, and he should be able to keep this fight standing for the most part. In a sparring match, the edge goes to Villante.

UFC odds pick: Villante to win at -180

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