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UFC Fight Night 99 Odds: Gegard Mousasi vs. Uriah Hall Preview and Predictions

UFC Fight Night 99 Odds

Gegard Mousasi didn’t just lose to Uriah Hall at UFC Fight Night 75 this past September. He was utterly humiliated by a jumping spin kick to the face that ended up being one of the year’s best highlights. Not only did it take him out of title contention, it knocked him a few pegs down the middleweight ladder - and Mousasi has had to reclimb the rungs ever since.

Now, “The Dreamcatcher” has an opportunity to exact revenge. This Saturday, the middleweight contender will meet Uriah Hall again in the main event of UFC Fight Night 99 on the promotion’s Fight Pass service. This might not end well for Hall.

Let’s break down your betting options and make a prediction.

Bet on UFC odds at Bovada.lv

Gegard Mousasi -502

Uriah Hall +380

Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -145, under +115

Please note, the UFC odds at BookMaker are updated daily.

Odds Analysis

Obviously, oddsmakers are categorizing Hall’s previous victory over Mousasi as a flash knockout. It’s not often you see a 5-1 favorite in a main event anymore, but Mousasi has been undeniably impressive as of late, winning three straight - with two coming by way of early knockout. On the flip side, Hall has lost back-to-back fights since that signature win, and was knocked out by Derek Brunson in the first for good measure.

The over/under for this three-rounder is 2.5 rounds, the highest possible total. It’s a bit surprising that the over is the more expensive play at -145, given the high finishing ratios of both men.

The Case for Hall

Ever since his time on The Ultimate Fighter, Hall has teased us with his electric blend of speed and explosive power. The man is blessed with athletic gifts that few can ever dream to possess. The damage he can do with a single burst is extraordinary - as Mousasi discovered in their first encounter.

It’s difficult to prepare for a fighter with the hand and foot speed of Hall. On top of that, he’s no longer just a guy that goes for killshots. Losses in the octagon have forced him to evolve into more than a knockout artist. Improved footwork lets him maintain his distance better, and he has committed to a higher striking output after a few listless defeats.

While Hall is by no means a mat wizard, he is a solid grappler with a classic BJJ skillset. He is active on his back, forcing opponents to adjust to constant submission attempts. On top, he can be absolutely brutal with ground and pound. It’s unfortunate that Hall usually only ends up on top after knockdowns, because it is a seriously underrated part of his game.

The Case for Mousasi

Mousasi’s kickboxing might appear awkward, but he throws strikes with surgical technique. The best example is his crisp, stinging jab. Not only it is his best punch, it’s one of the best in the business. Case in point: his UFC debut, where he jabbed Ilir Latifi for three straight rounds, and Latifi couldn’t do a thing about it.

It’s with this jab and awkward movement that he probes defenses to set up punch-kick combinations. When he commits to them, the strikes come fast and fluid. With two straight KO wins, the confidence he has in his standup has to be at an all-time high. Don’t expect Mousasi to be intimidated at all by Hall on the feet - despite having been knocked out by “Primetime” just a few months ago.

However, his biggest advantage will come in the wrestling and grappling phases. Mousasi breaks the stereotype of Europeans not being strong wrestlers. In fact, we’ve seen dominate guys in this aspect and win fights entirely from the top ride. With his ability to set up and snatch submissions, opponents must be on high alert anytime they roll with Mousasi.

Betting Values

There is a reason that Mousasi is a massive favorite - he is the far more well-rounded fighter with numerous paths to victory. He could jab Hall to death or drag him to the mat where Hall has had his issues. At -502 to win, Mousasi is a safe - but expensive - betting value.

If you’re looking for a better payout, I’d take a long look at the over on 2.5 rounds. Though Mousasi is coming into this fight with plenty of motivation, he is not the type to fight emotionally. In fact, his patience can be outright frustrating. There will be opportunities to end this fight, but they will likely not emerge until Mousasi has taken his time setting them up or exhausting Hall.

UFC odds pick: Mousasi to win at -502 / Over -145

Bet UFC Fight Night at Bovada.lv