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UFC Fight Night 111 - Common Sense Betting Picks To Beat the Odds

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UFC Fight Night 111 Picks

The UFC heads to the fight-crazed country of Singapore this Saturday for a nice little Fight Pass offering. In the main event, former women’s bantamweight champ Holly Holm will look to stop a three-fight slide against former world title challenger Bethe Correia. It’s an important fight for Holm, whose starpower is being seriously tested as of late.

Also on the card is a heavyweight tilt between Andrei Arlovski and the up-and-coming Marcin Tybura - another loss for Arlovski could force him into retirement. Former lightweight champ Rafael dos Anjos will fight at welterweight for the first time, and Colby Covington will look to make a jump in the rankings against veteran Dong Hyun Kim.

Main Event, Women’s Bantamweight

Bethe Correia +425

Holly Holm -640

Over 4.5 rounds, over -115, under -105

Common Sense Says…

The UFC booked this match to get Holly Holm back in the win column. But it’s not like they can just feed her a total scrub - and Correia has done just enough to stay somewhat relevant as a former title challenger. But really, there’s really no area where Correia has the advantage over Holm.

“The Preacher’s Daughter” is bigger, stronger, faster and more skilled. Correia is tough and scrappy, but her T-rex arms are gonna have a tough time landing punches against an opponent with greater range and far better footwork.

You’ve got two options here when it comes to the UFC odds: parlay Holm to win or go with the over. Correia was knocked out by Ronda Rousey, but she’s generally been durable throughout her career. Holm’s only knockout strike is her round kick, and though she hides it well she’s only landed a KO blow in one of her past six fights.

UFC odds pick: Holm to win at -640

Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski +215

Marcin Tybura -260

Over/under 1.5 rounds, over -115, under -105

Common Sense Says…

Tybura is a -250 favorite? Really? Oddsmakers are just being Arlovski haters at this point. Yes, the Pitbull’s chin can be cracked with a stiff fart, but it’s not like Tybura is the reincarnation of a young Alistair Overeem. Plus, Arlovski has been one of the division’s better boxers for years.

I’m not saying that Arlovski is a lock to win - far from it. But as more than a 2-1 underdog, the Greg Jackson-trained fighter is a fantastic value. Tybura is being overvalued for his two-fight knockout streak and Arlovski’s four-fight slide, but you take a look at who he’s been losing to and it makes a lot more sense.

Lay a small amount of coin on Arlovski, the payout’s too good to ignore here.

UFC odds pick: Arlovski to win at +215

Welterweight

Rafael Dos Anjos -260

Tarec Saffiedine +215

Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -265, under +225

Common Sense Says…

Rafael Dos Anjos is one of the most technical Muay Thai fighters in the game, but his style is super risky. Not a particularly rangy striker, the Brazilian crowds the pocket and unleashes holy hell on his opponents.

Normally, his speed and power is enough to make his style work. But that might not be the case against Saffiedine, a slick Belgian striker with excellent kickboxing. In fact, Saffiedine excels against pressure guys like Dos Anjos.

Dos Anjos is favored because he has more tools to work with and a far more impressive resume. But Saffiedine is just a bad style matchup for him. This is something you can take advantage of - put a small wager on Saffiedine. It’s going to be a lot closer than it seems.

UFC odds pick: Saffiedine to win at +215

Welterweight

Dong Hyun Kim +260

Colby Covington -335

Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -240, under +200

Common Sense Says…

Kim is 13-3 in the UFC - an impressive accomplishment that’s even more so considering his only losses have come against Tyron Woodley, Demian Maia and Carlos Condit. Even at 35, his experience and strength alone should carry him to victory against a hard-nosed wrestler like Covington.

The only problem is that you don’t know which Kim is going to show up - dude has been willing to brawl at the drop of a hat. That makes him completely unpredictable, especially against somebody as physically strong as Covington. The safe bet here is that their grappling cancels each other out for long stretches of time, sending this one to the final bell.

UFC odds pick: Over 2.5 rounds at -240

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