With Mousasi’s recent surge coinciding with Weidman’s slide, this co-main event clash is a pivotal career fight for both men. It’s also an extremely tough matchup to make a prediction for, but let’s take a look at the UFC fight odds at BookMaker.eu and surmise a smart betting pick.
Bet on UFC 210 odds
Chris Weidman +108
Gegard Mousasi -127
Over/under 2.5 rounds, over -180, under +155
A few weeks ago, oddsmakers set the money lines for both fighters at -110, making this a pick’em bout. Since then, Weidman’s line has gone up 20 points, making him a +110 underdog as of today. In contrast, Mousasi’s line has gone 20 points in the other direction. This signifies that most of the action has been on Mousasi.
The over/under for this three-round affair is 2.5 rounds, with the over the more expensive play. While neither man has fought past this mark very often in the past few years, they do have the skillsets and toughness to assume this will go to the final bell.
The Case for Weidman
Weidman’s early success was built on an elite wrestling foundation that was built from a successful collegiate career. He’s evolved as a dangerous striker as well, with good punching technique and plus power in his strikes.
When Weidman is able to threaten his opponents with his wrestling, the fight comes much easier to him. The problem is when he can’t land his takedowns consistently and is forced to rely solely on his standup. Luckily for him, Mousasi is not a huge middleweight like Romero or Rockhold.
If “The All-American” needs to implement multi-layered approach here. And if he can land a few takedowns early and maintain top control, the whole dynamic of this fight shifts in his favor. Pressing Mousasi into the cage and stifling his offense could be another successful route as well.
The Case for Mousasi
When it comes to kickboxing, Mousasi is easily the more talented and technical striker. He’s won fights entirely behind his crisp jab, but he also has gotten better at opening up behind it and finishing opponents. With three straight TKOs’ coming into the bout, Mousasi’s killer instinct has grown rapidly since his tepid 2013 UFC debut where he jabbed an outmatched Ilir Latifi for three straight rounds.
Mousasi’s takedown defense stands at 61%, which is a solid number. But he has to remember that he’s facing an elite wrestler and make sure his sprawl and escapes are on point. Denying Weidman early is of critical importance.
The Dutch-Armenian’s greatest weapon might be his fight IQ. He is an expert at probing an opponent’s defense and consistently attacking the weaknesses he finds. Whether he establishes his jab or low kicks early, he can force Weidman on the defensive early and prompt him to make adjustments from the start.
How You Should Bet
The safest bet in the UFC fight odds at BookMaker.eu is the over on 2.5 rounds at -180. Both men are durable and skilled enough to go three rounds easy. On top of that, Weidman’s wrestling and Mousasi’s probing can eat up clock quickly.
If you’re finding -180 too expensive for your tastes, consider Weidman as a +110 underdog. Remember, this was originally set as a toss-up, so getting a plus payout on either fighter should be a big factor in making your bet. If his line goes up even more - say to +120 - you’re getting a fantastic value.
UFC odds pick: Over 2.5 rounds -180, Weidman to win at +110
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