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Saturday’s Longshot Picks
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
The second Breeders’ Cup race on Saturday is the Turf Sprint where 14 horses go to the post. There is no dominating horse in this race, as the favorite (Disco Partner) is listed with odds of 7-2. I like to take a chance with a longshot in a race with no dominating favorite and that is the case with the Turf Sprint. I will go with Ruby Notion who is listed at odds of 20-1. The horse has run well in the past at Churchill Downs and the horse has done well at distance. I think the horse has a big chance to win at longshot odds.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
The Filly & Mare Turf is another race where there is not a dominating favorite. Sistercharlie is the lukewarm favorite at odds of 3-1, while Wild Illusion is 7-2. I am taking a shot A Raving Beauty at odds of 10-1. One thing we do know about this race is that trainer Chad Brown has a good chance to win it, as he has five horses entered. I am taking a chance with A Raving Beauty at double-digit odds, as I think this horse could outshine his other horses in the race including the favorite, Sistercharlie.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
If you believe in a home track advantage in horse racing then you will want to take a long look at Limousine Liberal in the Sprint. The horse has raced eight times at Churchill Downs and has won six times. He has not lost at Churchill Downs since June of 2016. Limousine Liberal is listed at odds of 6-1. He is not a huge longshot, but this field is not as large as some of the others, as only nine horses are entered. I will take a shot with Limousine Liberal at odds of 6-1.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
I know that most people will be betting Monomoy Girl in the Distaff, but there is not much value on that horse at odds of 2-1. I think there is more value on another of Chad Brown’s horses, Wow Cat at odds of 8-1. Wow Cat looked good in winning the Beldame Stakes and I think Wow Cat can come from the off the pace and steal this race from Monomoy Girl and Abel Tasman. We get some value on Wow Cat at odds of 8-1 and is worth a play.
Breeders’ Cup Mile
I am going with yet another Chad Brown horse in the Mile and taking Almanaar at odds of 12-1. The horse has one of the top jockeys in Joel Rosario and he should go off at double-digit odds. It could be an excellent day for the Brown barn, but perhaps not in the way some people think. I believe his longshots could be the way to go and Almanaar has some value at odds of 12-1.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
The biggest race of the Breeders’ Cup is of course the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Accelerate is the morning line favorite but the horse will have to win from Post 14 and that may not be easy to do against a full field. I think McKinzie has a lot of value at odds of 6-1. The horse is trained by Bob Baffert and will be ridden by Mike Smith. The horse is training great and he got a 107 Beyer speed figure in winning the Pennsylvania Derby. It would be great to get double-digit odds on McKinzie, but I don’t think that is going to happen. If we get 6-1 he is still an excellent value in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
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