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Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks

2017 Kentucky Derby Live Lines

Classically speaking, the Kentucky Derby features some of the biggest paydays in the Sport of Kings. We haven't seen that so much in recent years with one of the favorites ultimately turning up with the bed of roses on his back at the end of the first Saturday of May in three straight years, including the great American Pharoah, who went on to win the Triple Crown. We're due for an underdog to come up big though, and we've got a few picked out who could break the bank and create massive payouts for exotic bettors over the weekend.

Kentucky Derby
Date and Time: Saturday, May 6, 2017, 6:46 p.m. ET
Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Favorite on Kentucky Derby Odds: Classic Empire ( +525 )
Kentucky Derby TV Coverage: NBC

Tapwrit ( +1800 )

An interest case we have here with Tapwrit. Tapit has obviously been the sire for a number of championship colts in the past, and most assumed that Tapwrit had a chance to be the next in line. He didn't race well in his first ever outing, but he kicked off his three-year old year like gangbusters for trainer Todd Pletcher. He blazed a 97 Beyer Speed Rating at the Sam F. Davis Stakes and was unlucky to finish second to McCraken that day. But he turned around at the Tampa Bay Derby and was outstanding, giving out a 101 Beyer and essentially being ridden out by Irad Ortiz. Sure, Tapwrit finished fifth at the Blue Grass Stakes, but that was a really good field and a really quirky race. We wonder if he's got a lot better in the tank here at the Kentucky Derby.

Thunder Snow ( +1800 )

There's never been a pony win the UAE Derby and the Kentucky Derby since the races over in Dubai started counting for Kentucky Derby points, but Thunder Snow might provide a great opportunity to change all of that. Epicharis was largely considered one of the best ponies running overseas regardless of age coming into the UAE Derby, but Thunder Snow was favored against him and put him down. It's hard to travel over to the United States, go through the quarantine process and ultimately get ready to run at a mile and a quarter against a field of 19 others, but Thunder Snow is a big, productive horse, and this might be as good of a chance as we've seen for Godolphin to ever win the one jewel that is firmly missing in his collection. This is a great price on a sneaky sleeper.

Lookin At Lee ( +2500 )

The math doesn't add up right with Lookin At Lee, and that makes us scratch our heads just a bit. He's run in six graded stakes races in the past and has never finished better than third in any of them. He was a 12 to 1 longshot at the Arkansas Derby and finished third, and that came on the heels of being a 12 to 1 choice at the Rebel Stakes and a 30 to 1 deep sleeper at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year. Yet pundits still think in a field that could provide some weary legs that Lookin At Lee could be a deep sleeper. He's got great breeding for this distance for sure with former Kentucky Derby favorite and ultimate Preakness Stakes winner, Lookin At Lucky as his sire, and if he's the only one in this field who has this distance in him, "look" out.

Sonneteer ( +4000 )

Alright, alright. We hear you. It's been nearly 100 years since a maiden has won the Kentucky Derby. And yes, Sonneteer has largely stunk in his career. He started as a 24 to 1 longshot in his first ever maiden race and finished second to last, and he's only been the favorite once in his career. Seven maiden races. Zero victories. But at the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby, Sonneteer did finish second by a nose and fourth respectively, and that was good enough to get him here to the Derby. Trainer Keith Desormeaux and his jockey brother, Kent have had a history of teaming up for good things. Sonneteer could end up being the toast of the town even though he's a huge sleeper.