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Kentucky Derby Betting: Longshots to Watch

Kentucky Derby Live Odds

Every single year, a horse seems to come out of nowhere to finish on the board at the Kentucky Derby. Every now and again, that longshot of at least 25 or 30 to 1 ends up hitting the wire first to cash a huge bet. Below are a few ponies at least 20 to 1 who you should consider as live longshots with a chance to bust the favorites in the Run for the Roses.

Kentucky Derby Odds at

Nyquist + 400
Exaggerator + 710
Mohaymen + 715
Mor Spirit + 1086
Brody's Cause + 1137
Destin + 1178
My Man Sam + 1276
Creator + 1415
Gun Runner + 1415
Mo Tom + 1835
Outwork + 1915
Suddenbreakingnews + 2169
Whitmore + 2351
Lani + 2670
Danzing Candy + 2850
Shagaf + 3173
Majesto + 3782
Trojan Nation + 5250
Tom's Ready + 5636
Fellowship + 6050
Oscar Nominated + 6050
Adventist + 8550
Cherry Wine + 9568
Laoban + 12550
Dazzling Gem + 15250

What does it take for a longshot to pull off a victory at the Kentucky Derby? Generally speaking, we look at colts who have trained well at Churchill Downs first and foremost, as that's an indication that the colts are comfortable on the track and perhaps more comfortable here in Louisville than wherever they were racing in the Spring.

We're still not all that sure if Fellowship is going to run in the Kentucky Derby, but if he can race the way he's worked out, he's going to be a force to be reckoned with; even at a price of over 60 to 1. He burned through four furlongs in just 47 flat on Friday, one of the fastest times of the entire day. Prior to that, he ran five furlongs in a very respectable 1:00 and 2.

The real question we have with Fellowship is when and if this is ever going to translate into wins. Prior to the Florida Derby, he ran five furlongs in an insane 58 and 3 and four furlongs in 46 and 2. He finished third that day, albeit in a race which both Nyquist and Mohaymen were running in, but he'll have to do better than that to cash in big at the Kentucky Derby.

Another horse working out well is Shagaf. He's + 3173 and just turned four furlongs in 47 and 4 on a day where not a lot of horses were running all that well. Five days prior, he had a similar workout, running four furlongs in 47 and 2.

Shagaf was 3-for-3 in races in his career before getting beaten at the Wood Memorial and finishing fifth. He's lucky just to be here in this race with his win at the Gotham Stakes carrying him this far, but these workouts are indicative that he could be ready to shock the field on Saturday.

The other factor which comes into play sometimes with these underdogs is pace. In the Kentucky Derby this year, there are so many colts that are going to try to run from the back of the pack to take down the big boys, Mohaymen and Nyquist.

However, it's entirely possible that Danzing Candy could get out to the head of the pack. We're not sure he can really go wire-to-wire, but if he gets a decent post and a good break with Mike Smith on his back, he could be a factor. He's got a nice price on his head of + 2850 for a horse that won the San Felipe Stakes and was the favorite at the Santa Anita Derby, so definitely keep an eye on him leading up to the post.

Kentucky Derby odds at