Kentucky Derby Odds at BookMaker.eu
1: Trojan Nation +6050
2: Suddenbreakingnews +1615
3: Creator +1415
4: Mo Tom +2550
5: Gun Runner +1215
6: My Man Sam +1615
7: Oscar Nominated +6550
8: Lani +2250
9: Destin +1415
10: Whitmore +1615
11: Exaggerator +825
12: Tom's Ready +3050
13: Nyquist +345
14: Mohaymen +1015
15: Outwork +1815
16: Shagaf +2550
17: Mor Spirit +1415
18: Majesto +4850
19: Brody's Cause +1415
20: Danzing Candy +2550
We'll start by saying that you have to box a heck of a lot of horses together to come up with the Kentucky Derby winning trifecta. It's just impossible to pick three horses and get them in the right order with just one $2 ticket. But if you've got the bankroll to box six horses together ($240 for $2 bets), we'll give you the six we'd look at.
Though you'd think it all has to start with #13 Nyquist, we're here to tell you to leave him out of the equation. It's tough to leave a horse who has never lost before out of your exotics, but we see time and time again when a horses loses for the first time, he often loses by a wide margin and doesn't even hit the board.
That's what happened with #14 Mohaymen at the Florida Derby. He was the de facto co-favorite with Nyquist in a battle of two undefeated ponies and was beaten soundly, finishing fourth. Still, at a price of 10 to 1, there's no reason to think that a bounce back couldn't at least possibly be in order.
The Derby is often won by horses who are big closers. There are a few which certainly fit that mold.
#2 Suddenbreakingnews has trained really well at Churchill Downs and could be a factor. He's got a favorable post for a closer towards the rail, and he should be able to stay out of trouble as a result.
Just to his outside is #4 Mo Tom, a horse who is also a big closer and has run well in his training sessions. Mo Tom was the favorite in all of the races at the Fair Grounds this year, and he's certainly a pony to watch out for.
The best closer of them all here is #8 Exaggerator. He's what we like to call the "second closer," as he's the horse who's going to make the move right at the very end after the horse who is the closer makes his initial surge. That's how you go from nearly 10 lengths back at the Santa Anita Derby with a couple furlongs to go to winning it by 6 1/4.
Lastly, we've got a couple wild card horses that we’re banking on because of their jockeys as much as anything else.
Mike Smith has done a remarkable job with #20 Danzing Candy. Here we have a colt that is probably overmatched by some of the others in this field, and his outside post is sure to be a hindrance. Still, go back and watch him race. He's just got this knack for avoiding traffic, and that's a really important skill to have at the Derby.
We know that #16 Shagaf is a big risk. He's only raced four times in his career, and he failed at the Wood Memorial, arguably the weakest of all of the 100-point Derby races. Still, Joel Rosario is a heck of a jockey, and most horses who show up to Churchill Downs and run four furlongs in 48 and 2 followed by 47 and 4 ultimately race well.
Our recommendation is to box 2-4-8-14-16-20 together, but if we had to narrow this down to just three horses, we'd go with Danzing Candy, Mo Tom and Shagaf. If these three do all hit the board, we'd be talking about close to a five-digit payout for the exact, and the Pick 5 would legitimately be close to a quarter of a million dollars. It's nice to dream this time of year for sure.
Kentucky Derby Odds
#20 Danzing Candy
#4 Mo Tom