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Mohaymen vs. Creator
For our money, this is a no-contest. The only reason Creator has 10 to 1 odds to win the Derby is because he won the Rebel Stakes, a race in which he was 12 to 1. Mohaymen was just an odds-on favorite at the Florida Derby. Sure, he was beaten, but he was also neck-and-neck from a betting standpoint with the undefeated Nyquist. Even though these two will be matched up fairly closely with one another, we just don't see a comparison. Mohaymen is the far better of these two horses, and we can't see him failing miserably for a second straight race.
Mo Tom vs. Danzing Candy
Mo Tom will likely be a short underdog here considering the fact that he has longer odds to win the Kentucky Derby than Danzing Candy, but there's a reason we're picking these two to put up against each other. Danzing Candy is a starter who has drawn an awful post in slot No. 20. He's going to have to work extra hard to get to the head of the pack early on, or he's going to have to drift back and run a race he isn't accustomed to. Mo Tom is a trailer who is sure to do his best running in the last couple furlongs. The reason we love this matchup for Mo Tom is because he should be darting around some of the stragglers in the late going, and there's a real chance Danzing Candy runs out of gas in the last dozen strides.
Exaggerator vs. Nyquist
Nyquist will understandably be a huge favorite, but is it justified? Exaggerator is the best horse in this field according to Prime Power, and that's quite intriguing, if nothing else. Nyquist will have to run up near the head of the pack the whole way, while Exaggerator is one of the many closers. It's a big risky to bet against an undefeated horse, but we think there's a real chance Nyquist falls flat in the Derby, especially under the pressure of a pony who has posted four straight 100+ Beyer Speed Ratings.
Trojan Horse vs. Oscar Nominated
This isn't the sexiest matchup in the world, as it pits the two 50 to 1 shots against each other. Oscar Nominated has been doing some winning of late, while Trojan Nation has never actually won a race. Still, Oscar Nominated is a turf horse who got a bit fortunate that the field at the Spiral Stakes stunk. Trojan Horse might've been 80 to 1 to win the Wood Memorial, but he was outstanding down the stretch. We'll take our chances that Trojan Horse can finish in the top half of the field. We don't think Oscar Nominated stands a chance of finishing better than 15th.
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