New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams
Date and Time: Sunday, February 3, 2019, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Opening Super Bowl Odds: New England PK, 58.5
Super Bowl LIII TV Coverage: CBS
Will Tom Brady Have a Higher Completion Percentage than Trevor Lawrence did in National Championship Game: Yes -350
The number to beat here is 62.5 percent at top rated sportsbooks. Lawrence put forth one heck of a show against the Alabama Crimson Tide to lead Clemson to the surprising 44-16 spanking. As impressive it was, Brady should find himself in a solid position to beat that mark. In his two postseason appearances to date, the GOAT completed 77.3 percent of his passes against the Chargers and 65.2 percent of his 46 passes against the Chiefs in the freezing cold. He’ll now be in the temperature controlled comforts of Mercedes-Benz Stadium and be running up against a Rams defense that allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.0 percent of its passes to this point of the season. Bill Belichick has had two weeks to break LA’s defense down and devise a game plan to allow Brady to succeed. It’s chalky but lay the -350!
Who Will Throw More TD Passes: Goff +100
I’m siding with Goff here as I expect the third-year field general to put forth a memorable performance in Super Bowl LIII. Todd Gurley will likely be closer to being healed than he’s been over the last five weeks, but that still doesn’t change the fact that the strength of the Patriots defense comes in defending the run. While it gives up a healthy 4.8 yards per carry, it only concedes 103.5 yards per game ( No. 8 ) and just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game ( No. 2 ). It’s quite the opposite in terms of pass defense with the Pats ranked No. 22 overall while giving up nearly 2.0 passing touchdowns per game; advantage Goff. While the Rams 33 overall passing touchdowns allowed leaves some cause for concern wagering on this prop, the secondary has shored things up since Aqib Talib returned. On top of that, LA’s run defense has given up 13 total rushing touchdowns and Josh McDaniels has had no issues looking to his ground assault in the red zone with regularity. Sign me up for the even money return!
Jared Goff Total Passing Yards: Over 278.5 -130
If the Rams are to have any shot of coming out on top of this game, it’s going to need to unleash an aerial assault much like the Jaguars, Lions, Titans, Dolphins and Steelers did in the regular season to hand the Pats their five road losses. While not every one of those starting quarterbacks surpassed this yardage total, it can be argued only Ben Roethlisberger had the type of pass catchers the Rams will be showcasing on Sunday. Both Philip Rivers and Patrick Mahomes went over this impost in New England’s two playoff matchups leading up to yet another appearance in the big game, and I firmly expect Goff to make it three straight in LIII at the best sportsbooks. He just threw for 297 yards against a similarly ranked New Orleans pass defense, and has McVay calling the shots. That’s a recipe for success right there! I think both teams dent the scoreboard in this one, so Goff should be put in a position to comfortably outperform his expected market value in this prop.
Will a QB Throw for 300 or More Yards? Yes -239
Regardless of the line movement with the total, I’m sticking to my guns and expect Super Bowl LIII to play to a high scorer. Honestly, I wouldn’t come away the least bit shocked if both Goff and Brady surpassed the 300 yard plateau in a shootout with the last team in possession of the pigskin likely to win. The Rams initially opened up short favorites to win this game at some online sportsbooks. The betting public isn’t giving this rams team enough credit. They deserve to be here just as much as the Patriots, and that will show immediately once the pigskin is put into the air on the opening kickoff. Both of these pass defenses are very beatable. Brady is one of the best to play the game, while Goff has a wunderkind calling his plays from the sideline. At the very least, one of these guys is throwing for 300+ yards!