New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams
Date and Time: Sunday, February 3, 2019, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Opening Super Bowl Odds: New England PK, 58.5
Super Bowl LIII TV Coverage: CBS
With both the Rams and Patriots lined as only 3 point underdogs on the road in the championship round, it comes as no surprise that linemakers expect a close game to play out when these teams collide on the first Sunday of February. The game initially opened up at a pick ‘em at BookMaker.eu with -119 juice attached to Tom Brady and company. After the Pats ousted the Chiefs in overtime in thrilling fashion, it hardly came as a shock to see the Patriots getting some early wagering love from the betting public.
Minutes into the betting line hitting the board, the Patriots immediately jumped up to 1 point neutral field favorites. Though there was some initial buy-back on the Rams, it wasn’t enough to slow down all the Patriots money flooding in. The impost then jumped up to 1.5 only an hour into its release with -115 juice attached to New England. Early on, it’s evident the betting markets believe oddsmakers made a mistake by lining the game a pick. That idea was bolstered with another move in the Pats’ direction with the number to beat jumping up to -2. As much burn the reigning AFC champs are getting, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this line continue to rise over the coming weeks leading up to kick-off.
At what point will it make sense to back a Rams team that up until the NFC title game had gone off the board favored to win each and every game played to that point? Keep in mind, Los Angeles was favored to beat the Saints in New Orleans on the road as well as the Chiefs at home in the regular season. That no doubt weighed heavily on linemakers’ decision to originally line this game at a pick ‘em, so don’t go into this matchup thinking it’s going to be a carefree walk in the park for the more experienced Patriots! Though it didn’t make much of a difference in the AFC title game, New England went into it 3-5 SU and ATS away from Foxboro. Remember though, it would’ve had Dee Ford not lined up offside!
Super Bowl LIII will pit two of the more potent scoring offenses up against one another. The Rams check in with the No. 2 ranked scoring offense that averages nearly 33 points per game, while the Patriots rank No. 4 with just over 27 points per game. Each can move the ball both on the ground and through the air with Jared Goff and Tom Brady each benefitting from a number of talented targets to get the ball to. With that, this year’s edition of the grand game is the owner of the highest total in Super Bowl history.
It initially opened at 58.5 but has since been bet down to 57.5 where it currently sits. Super Bowl LI was the previous owner of the highest total that pit, you guessed it, the New England Patriots up against the Atlanta Falcons. Just like Sunday’s AFC title game, the under looked to be as good as gold through a half of play at the best sportsbooks with only 24 points hitting the board. Then the Pats second half comeback was staged and therest is history; on both accounts.
Of the 10 highest totals to hit the board in Super Bowl history, six failed to surpass the closing number, three did and one pushed. While that could be one of the reasons why the initial move on the under has seen it go down, it also might be because of the Patriots recent dedication to the ground game. The trio of Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead and James White has made it flourish in a big way. Though the Rams rush defense has shown well in the playoffs by basically taking Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram out of the equation, it’s ranked No. 20 overall and concedes nearly 5.0 yards per carry. You can also make the argument that LA’s ground attack will have a big showing as well with the Patriots run defense giving up over 107 yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry. Early total bettors are no doubt expecting both head coaches to look to their respective ground attacks over the course of the game’s entirety in hopes of pulling out the win.