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Super Bowl LI - Falcons vs. Patriots ATS Picks

Bet on Super Bowl Odds

The Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots will meet in Super Bowl LI on Sunday on FOX in what is expected to be a high scoring contest with the total of 58.5 the highest ever for a Super Bowl. The Patriots will be playing in an NFL-record 9th Super Bowl while the Falcons are playing in their 2nd. This will be the 14th meeting all-time between the Falcons and Patriots with New England winning seven while the Falcons have won six.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots
Date and Time: Sunday, February 5, 2017, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Super Bowl LI Odds at BetDSI: Patriots -3, O/U 58.5
Falcons vs. Patriots TV Coverage: FOX

The Falcons and Patriots have not met since 2013 when it was the Patriots winning 30-23 in Atlanta. New England has won the last four meetings in the series. Sunday’s game is a matchup between the top-ranked offense of the Atlanta Falcons led by probable MVP Matt Ryan and the top-ranked defense of the New England Patriots. The game also features New England quarterback Tom Brady who is playing in his seventh Super Bowl, most all-time. Brady has 164 passes for 1,605 yards with 13 touchdowns in his previous Super Bowl action.

The Falcons averaged almost 34 points per game during the regular season. They have a potent passing attack led by Ryan and Julio Jones and an excellent running attack with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Atlanta has scored 30 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Atlanta has improved defensively as the season has progressed but they did allow just over 25 points per game this season which was just 27th in the NFL.

The Patriots were 3rd in the league in points per game at just over 27 per contest. They have a very good passing attack as well led by Brady and Julian Edelman. New England also has an underrated rushing attack led by LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis. The Patriots were tops in the NFL in defense this season as they allowed just 15.6 points per game.

Key Stat

The Patriots have been a fantastic team to bet on this season. They went 14-2 ATS in the regular season and they covered both of their playoff games so they are a ridiculous 16-2 ATS this season. They went under in 10 of their 16 regular season games but both of their playoff games have gone over the total. The Falcons were 11-5 ATS in the regular season and they have covered both of their playoff games. They went over an amazing 13 times in the regular season with just two games going under with one push and both of their playoff games have gone over.

The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games but they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Super Bowl games. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 playoff games. The Over is 6-1 in the Patriots last 7 playoff games. The Over is 4-0 in the Falcons last 4 playoff games.

Falcons vs. Patriots Free Picks

There is no question that bettors are going to pound the over but that means there is value in taking this game under. Even though the Falcons went over a ridiculous amount of times this season, half of their games stayed under the total of 58.5. And the Patriots only had one game all season that cleared this total. I will go against the public and take Super Bowl LI under the odds at BetDSI.

Falcons vs. Patriots ATS Pick: Under 58.5 at BetDSI

Falcons vs. Patriots Score Prediction: Patriots 30 – Falcons 20