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Super Bowl Betting Historical Picks

Super Bowl LI Football Betting

This is the highest total we have ever seen for a Super Bowl and books are putting up prop bets about what sorts of records might fall. The Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots had two of the best offenses in the NFL this season and coupled with average defenses, these teams could put up a ton of points. Some of these propositions are more reachable than others, but all but a few of these can realistically be achieved.

Super Bowl 51
Date and Time
: Sunday, February 5, 2017, 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Super Bowl Odds at Patriots -3, O/U 58
Super Bowl 51 TV Coverage: FOX

Will any player break Super Bowl record of 414 passing yards?

Yes +375
No -650

Kurt Warner has the three highest passing totals in Super Bowl history, throwing for 365, 377, and 414 yards in his three Super Bowl appearances. Tom Brady has just 9 400-yard games in his 17-year NFL career and has yet to throw for 400 yards in a playoff game. However, he has eclipsed the 300-yard mark 7 times in his last 11 postseason games.

His counterpart Matt Ryan has breached the 400-yard barrier four times in his career and one of those times was the last time he faced the Patriots. In that game Ryan threw the ball 54 times for 421 yards and this is by far the best passing attack he has ever been a part of. There is no reason to bet the ‘Yes’ at these odds though and ‘No’ is a fantastic wager at this price.

Will any player break Super Bowl record of 215 receiving yards?

Yes +800
No -2300

This prop is correlated to the passing yards prop but the odds are a lot better for the ‘Yes’ on this one. For Atlanta, Julio Jones would be the obvious pick to break the record. Despite opponents’ best efforts, Jones has been unable to be stopped for much of the season and torched Green Bay the last time he was on the field. In that game he hauled in nine passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns in a game that Atlanta shut down its offense for the last quarter.

Anyone can have a big day for New England as we have continually under Brady and Bill Belichick. Julian Edelman has been the main target this season, but Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett have each seen their moments in the sun as well. However, Hogan set the Patriots postseason record for receiving yards just last week with a 180-yard performance and it’s hard to imagine any Pat breaking 215.

Will any player break Super Bowl record of 204 rushing yards?

Yes +1200
No -5500

If the odds for the ‘Yes’ were in the 30 to 1 or so mark, this prop would be interesting. Although both of these teams are known for their passing, neither run defense has been particularly good and both have running backs that are capable of breaking off huge runs.

Dion Lewis is a very explosive back although he has been banged up for most of the year and it wouldn’t be a big shock to see him break a long run or two. Lewis has the quickness to make the first man miss and the speed to leave defenders in the dust.

Devonta Freeman has quietly established himself as one of the better runners in the NFL, but hasn’t had many touches lately. In his last four games, he hasn’t carried the ball more than 14 times and only broke the 100-yard barrier against San Francisco and New Orleans.

Will any player break Super Bowl record of 6 touchdown passes?

Yes +857
No -1927

It’s pretty insane to see the ‘No’ price on this prop. Only 8 times in NFL history have quarterbacks thrown for 7 touchdowns in a game and it has never happened in a postseason game. Tom Brady has thrown for 6 touchdowns in a game three times in his career, and once in the playoffs, but it’s a bit absurd to think that he or Matt Ryan can throw for 7 on the biggest stage, especially at a little over 8 to 1.

The under is a great play in this one. Neither one of these secondaries is bad enough to allow 7 touchdown passes regardless of how good the passing attacks are and both defensive coordinators have shown they can make good adjustments.