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Packers vs. Steelers ATS Picks

NFL Sunday Night Week 11 Picks

A couple months ago, the NBC executives had to believe they were going to have a Sunday Night Football contest to remember the Sunday after Thanksgiving between Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. Instead, what they have is a game that very well could be a lopsided mess between the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Date and Time
: Sunday, November 26, 2017, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Opening NFL Odds: Steelers -13.5, O/U 41.5
Packers vs. Steelers TV Coverage: NBC

Brett Hundley had a few passes early on last week against the Ravens that reminded us of Rodgers. He shuffled around in the pocket, threw a little bit off his back foot and completed a few passes that theoretically, he never should have completed.

That look of Rodgers, though, was short-lived.

Hundley went on toss three interceptions, and he became the first quarterback since Brett Favre in 1994 to get shut out in Green Bay.

By definition, the Packers are 5-5, and they're still very much so alive in the hunt for Wild Card berths to the playoffs. In actuality, though, Green Bay is finished, and there's no way that Hundley looks like he's going to be able to keep this team afloat long enough for Rodgers to return from his broken collarbone.

There aren't a lot of impressive wins on Pittsburgh's schedule this year, but 8-2 is 8-2. The team has already basically wrapped up the AFC North, and a win in this game would bring the magic number down to just three to clinch the division title.

The question, though, is whether the Steelers are really any closer to being able to beat New England in the postseason this year than they have been in recent years.

We'd contend that that answer is a resounding no.

Ben Roethlisberger only has an 87.8 quarterback rating, and though he's going to throw for around 4,000 yards this year in all likelihood, this offense just hasn't quite hummed.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is starting to come on strong in his rookie campaign, at least. He has 568 yards and five touchdowns this year, and he's really starting to stretch the field the way men like Martavis Bryant and Sammie Coates have done in the past.

Key Stat

3.8 – The number of yards per carry Le'Veon bell is averaging this season.

Bell is a lethal back due to the fact that he is able to beat you out of the backfield and as a rusher. He has the ball in his hands over 28 times per game, and he racks up his stats with quantity more than quality.

For as shifty as Bell is, though, he hasn't largely been effective this season. The Steelers only rank No. 19 in the NFL in rushing, and there's no sign that this is changing any time in the near future.

This Green Bay team isn't great, but one of its strengths is its interior defensive line. Mike Daniels is a fantastic defensive tackle, and when he gets a big push up front, this unit is definitely strong. This is the one factor in this game where the Packers can excel.

Packers vs. Steelers Free Picks

For as bad as the Packers are, this is a lot of points to be giving them in a game where Pittsburgh could easily be disinterested. A big visit to Cincinnati is on tap, and the rest of the schedule ahead is incredibly tough.

Hundley isn't going to be anywhere near as bad this week as he was against the Ravens (he certainly can't get much worse unless he turns into Nathan Peterman overnight), and if he can get even just two scores on the board, this is a game that should be covered. The top NFL sportsbooks are certainly overrating the Steelers in this one.

NFL ATS Pick: Packers +13.5 at BookMaker.eu
NFL Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Packers 14