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NFL Week 1 Line Movement: Patriots vs. Chiefs

2017 NFL Week 1 Odds

Betting lines for Week 1 of the NFL season always have more time to marinate than any others across the wagering world. The Kansas City Chiefs were always going to be huge underdogs to the New England Patriots in the kickoff game of the 2017 campaign. That said, as time has worn on, the Chiefs have found themselves as bigger and bigger pups, as both public and sharp money come pouring in on the defending Lombardi Trophy winners.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
Date and Time
: Thursday, September 7, 2017, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
NFL Week 1 Opening Odds: Patriots -7, O/U 48
Chiefs vs. Patriots TV Coverage: NBC

You'll be hard-pressed to find a legitimate NFL pundit out there who believes that any team aside from New England is the deserving favorite to win the Super Bowl. As the offseason has worn on, the Patriots have become bigger and bigger favorites. They were the +500 choices of the oddsmakers the day after their Super Bowl triumph, and they're set to open up the season at a tick worse than 3 to 1.

Not surprisingly, as New England has become more public on the odds to win the Super Bowl, it has seen the betting line rise in this game at all of the top online sportsbooks.

The Patriots were 7-point favorites in April when the initial Week 1 odds were released. Now, they're all the way up to -8.5, a huge jump past that crucial opening number.

The total that opened at 48 has held firm with only a slight tick towards the under. The over/under currently sits at 47.5.

Why the Chiefs vs. Patriots Odds Have Changed

When the oddsmakers lined this game initially, it was already known that the Patriots were effectively not going to have an NFL Draft this year. They had already flipped their first-round pick for Brandin Cooks and their second-round pick for Kona Ealy. What wasn't known was that the Chiefs effectively weren't going to have a rookie class in 2017 either.

Sure, there's no such thing as a rookie who is having a major impact on betting lines in Week 1 of the season. That said, instead of drafting anyone who could come in and help immediately, the Chiefs traded up in the first round to take Patrick Mahomes II. That might end up looking like the prudent pick down the line, but for the time being, that isn't going to help beat the Patriots.

Second-round pick, Tanoh Kpassagnon and third-rounder, Kareem Hunt are both looked upon as project picks, and both are firmly blocked on the depth chart.

Then came June when the Chiefs cut Jeremy Maclin out of nowhere. Kansas City was already thin at wide receiver before releasing the often-injured speedster. That leaves this offense with Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley and De'Anthony Thomas at the receiver positions. That represents a slew of speed, but it also doesn't present much of a threat to the Patriots. KC really needed that consistent veteran for this matchup.

But perhaps the greatest factor playing a role in this Week 1 betting line is the fact that the Patriots continue to get more and more public as they're talking about more in the media.

It isn't often that games between playoff teams from the previous season are looked upon as slam dunks. Yet virtually everyone you speak with will ultimately give Kansas City no shot whatsoever in this game. The last time the Chiefs won a game in Foxboro was back in 1990; Mahomes wasn't even born yet. Since then, the team is 0-6 overall, including a 27-20 playoff loss the last time the clubs met in the 2016 postseason.

All sorts of comparisons are being drawn between this team and the one that the Belichick/Brady combination came one bad quarter away from a perfect season in 2007. This team is perceived to have everything that is necessary to ultimately run the table. Of course, most recognize that that thought is a longshot at best, but just having the discussion has to start with what is perceived to be an easy victory in Week 1.

If you happen to like the points in this game, there's no sense in betting now. As the game creeps closer, there will be more and more public money aiding New England. There's no way the Chiefs are going to be giving back any points to the Patriots after climbing this high. In fact, there are already sportsbooks out there booking the Pats at -9, and it could be only a matter of time until -10 becomes available.