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NFL Playoff Betting Analysis - Giants at Packers

NFL Playoff Betting Odds

R-E-L-A-X! Aaron Rodgers has this. Rodgers is making a habit of stepping up his game as the season wears on and has the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs once again. The Packers were unstoppable down the stretch winning six straight and beat three other playoff teams by a combined 43 points in that timeframe. Now, they face a New York Giants team that they have already defeated once this season and a win here would likely send them to Dallas for the Divisional Round.

Giants vs. Packers
Date and Time
: Sunday, January 8, 2017, 4:40 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
NFL Playoff Odds at Green Bay -4, O/U 44
Giants vs. Packers TV Coverage: FOX

Odds Analysis

The line for this game opened at 3.5, but moved to 4 soon after. Although it is winter in Green Bay, snow is not expected so weather should not have a big impact on line moves in this one.

Green Bay was 5-1 ATS to close out the year, but even more impressive than that was the over streak the team went on. It’s not a big shock that a team with Aaron Rodgers put up a lot of points, but the Packers saw eight of their last 10 go over the total, including their last four. In that span, Green Bay scored at least 30 in every game.

For whatever reason, New York had Dallas’ number this season, beating them both times in divisional play. Other than that, the Vikings had a mixed bag of results against playoff teams, losing to both Green Bay and Pittsburgh, but defeating Detroit easily. Defense has been the key to New York’s turnaround this season and seven of their last eight games have finished short of the total.

Team and Coaching Playoff History

Ben McAdoo is familiar with Green Bay, spending a large chunk of his coaching career there. From 2006-2011 he was the tight ends coach and he moved over to be quarterbacks coach for the 2012 and 2013 seasons before moving on to become the Giants offensive coordinator. This is his first season as head coach and he hasn’t seen the playoffs since Green Bay.

This will be just the fourth time the Giants have made the playoffs over the last decade, but in the two of the three previous trips they played in the Wildcard Round, and ended up winning the Super Bowl both of those seasons. New York knocked off Green Bay in Lambeau Field during its last playoff run in 2011 behind a great Eli Manning performance and will look to recreate that magic.

Making the postseason has become second nature for Green Bay. The Packers have made the playoffs in each of the last eight seasons, but have only made it to the conference title game three times. Last season, they suffered a heart-wrenching defeat at the hands of Arizona after tying the game on a last-ditch Hail Mary, but did cover the spread in both playoff games.

Recent Games of Note

Like virtually every season, Manning has been pretty inconsistent, mixing solid performances with bad ones. He has played poorly of late though with only one good performance in December, against Detroit, and his mediocre numbers meant that New York didn’t score more than 19 points all month.

The good news is the defense has been stellar for the Giants. They held their opponents to 10 points or less in three of their last five, and have quietly put up really good numbers. No team has scored more than 29 against this unit all year long and that’s impressive in the modern-day NFL.

Rodgers has been other-worldly over the last half of the season. Over this last seven games, he threw 18 touchdowns without a single interception and led his team to at least 21 points in each of those games. Other than Tom Brady, there’s no quarterback that bettors have more faith in than Rodgers.

However, this defense was able to limit his big-play capability the last time they met. Rodgers averaged just 5.76 yards per attempts against the Giants defense earlier in the year, his lowest against any team all season. Doing so again would put New York in a great position to win.