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Dolphins vs. Bengals ATS Picks

NFL Week 4 Prediction

Off getting their asses handed to them by the defending champs in their home opener, the Cincinnati Bengals will attempt to regroup in front of a live nationally televised audience on Thursday Night Football when they welcome in the Miami Dolphins to kick off Week 4. The Fins almost covered each of their first two road games at Seattle and New England, so the Bengals better bring their “A” game or else the defending AFC North champs could be looking at a 1-3 start.

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Date and Time: Thursday, September 29, 2016, 8:25 p.m. ET
Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Week 4 NFL Odds at Bengals -7, 44
Dolphins vs. Bengals TV Coverage: NFL Network

Miami has long been a terrible team to back in the home chalk role and last Sunday wasn’t any different. Their 30-24 overtime win and non-cover against the Browns moved them to a bankroll destroying 1-7 ATS the last eight times they went off the betting board favored at home. It was however Adam Gase’s first win as an NFL head coach.

While their fortunes when on the road haven’t been much better in going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS their last four as visitors dating back to last season, they should have beaten Seattle in front of the 12th Man in Week 1 and almost pulled off a furious comeback to get the best of the Patriots in New England. Cincy hasn’t impressed whatsoever in 2016, so an outright win is certainly a possibility if it plays its cards right.

Everything looked to be going Cincy’s way after the first quarter of Sunday’s game with Denver. They were up 7-3 and just forced a punt that would likely set them up near midfield with an opportunity to put more points on the board if it at the very least just got into field goal range. Then Adam “Pacman” Jones muffed the punt. Denver recovered, and a couple plays later, got ahead of the home team on the scoreboard.

Though Cincinnati was able to retake the lead later in the quarter, penalties prevented it from taking the lead into the break after it was flagged on two successive third down stops. The drive ultimately ended in another Denver touchdown. Another lead was overcome by the visitors in the fourth quarter when the Bengals were once again beaten on a double move.

Key Stat

The Bengals entered Sunday’s game with the Broncos owners of the second worst rushing offense in the league. Both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill were simply unable to get untracked the first two weeks against the Seahawks and Patriots, but it went off in a big way in Week 3 galloping for 143 yards on 29 carries against the Broncos.

Hill had a huge game with 97 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns, and will now get the pleasure of running up against the league’s No. 31 ranked rush defense in the Dolphins that’s conceding an average of 136.5 yards per game.

Dolphins vs. Bengals Free Picks

These teams haven’t met on the gridiron since 2013, so much different squads will be taking to the gridiron in this matchup. Still, Miami has dominated the recent rivalry in winning and covering the odds at in the last three meetings.

Cincinnati’s line play has been awful to start the season. It’s allowing Andy Dalton to get sacked an average of four times per game, while tallying an average of just one sack per game. Miami has the advantage in that department with it acquiring and conceding 2.5 sacks per game. It’ll be interesting to see if Vontaze Burfict being back in the equation has an effect, but until vast improvement is made, I’ll look to continue fading the Bengals.

Dolphins vs. Bengals ATS Pick: Dolphins +7 at

Dolphins vs. Bengals Score Prediction: Bengals 20 – Dolphins 17