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Chiefs vs. Broncos ATS Picks

NFL Week 12 Picks

The log jam atop the AFC West standings will get thinned out a bit on Sunday Night Football when the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos collide in the thin air of Mile high Stadium. The Chiefs need this game in the worst of ways after coughing one up at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers whom they were decidedly favored to beat. Denver meanwhile enters 100 rested after being on bye looking to build upon its current two game win streak at home.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Date and Time: Sunday, November 27, 2016, 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Week 12 NFL Odds at Broncos -3.5, 40
Chiefs vs. Broncos TV Coverage: NBC

There was absolutely no excuse for the Chiefs to fall at Arrowhead to a team like the Bucs. Kansas City had won all four of its previous home games, and though they only managed a 1-3 ATS mark in each, a division leader isn’t supposed to go down to a team like the Bucs. This is the NFL however, and crazy things happen every passing week.

The warning signs were there however. Three weeks ago, they pulled out a 19-14 non-covering win against Jacksonville. They were outgained by over 200 yards in that contest, but still came out on top due to four Jaguars turnovers. Two weeks ago, the offense failed to score a touchdown but got an interception return for a score and four made field goals from Cairo Santos to pull out the come-from-behind win at Carolina. The team has however won and covered three straight on the road since getting clobbered at Pittsburgh.

With only a defeat incurred at division rival Oakland over the last month, the defending champion Broncos felt pretty darn good about themselves going into their bye week. The exhilaration of pulling out a 25-23 win over the Saints on a blocked extra point that was returned all the way back for the go-ahead score made that win over New Orleans all the more sweeter.

Denver went into the bye a beat up team with one of the major contributors to the defense, Aqib Talib, missing three straight games. The veteran will likely be back roaming the Broncos secondary with his back fully healed due to the extra time off. His presence alone will only add to the Chiefs frustration with the passing offense ranked No. 22 overall, and Alex Smith managing one or less touchdown passes in each of his last three starts.

Matchup to Watch

As good as the Broncos are at locking down opposing passing games, they have been susceptible on the ground evidenced by the 123.7 yards per game allowed at 4.4 yards per carry (No. 23). Spencer Ware wasn’t able to do much of anything in a plus-matchup versus the Bucs No. 23 ranked rush defense last week in going for just 69 yards on 17 carries. If he isn’t able to find some room in this matchup, the Chiefs offense will once again be stuck in the mud.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Free Picks

The Broncos have been flat out money in the bank against the NFL odds at when coming off a bye going a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS the last six seasons. When at home, they’ve gone 7-1 SU and ATS the last eight times. Their last two home games off a bye saw them pound the Packers and Cardinals by an average of 20 points per game.

The Chiefs snapped their seven game losing streak to the Broncos last season in a game they won 29-13 as 3.5 point underdogs. That’s something Gary Kubiak and company won’t have forgotten. KC’s recent offensive struggles paired with the defenses inability to stop the run will prove to be the team’s demise so long as the Broncos don’t allow the Chiefs to stick close due to turnovers.

Chiefs vs. Broncos ATS Pick: Broncos -3.5 at
Chiefs vs. Broncos Score Prediction: Broncos 27 – Chiefs 16