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AFC Championship Game Odds Analysis

Patriots vs. Chiefs Picks

For the eighth straight season, the New England Patriots will take part in the AFC Championship Game when they invade Arrowhead Stadium to battle a Kansas City Chiefs outfit making its first appearance in the conference title game since 1993. This marks the second time in the last four seasons that these teams will have run up against one another in the playoffs. The Pats got the best of Andy Reid’s squad back in the Divisional Round of the 2015-16 season when they scored the 27-20 win and cover as 6 point favorites per the closing NFL odds. The teams have alternated wins and losses in the last four overall meetings with KC coming out the pointspread victor in those matchups ( 3-1 ATS ).

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Date and Time: Sunday, January 20, 2019, 6:40 p.m. ET

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Opening NFL Odds: Kansas City -3, 57

Patriots vs. Chiefs TV Coverage: CBS

Opening Odds Analysis

After initially getting a bump towards the over after the total opened at 57, it’s been nothing but movement the other way with the line to beat currently checking in at 54.5 with nearly 55 percent of the betting handle expecting a low scorer. A surprise no doubt as potent these offenses have been this season with New England sporting the league’s No. 4 ranked scoring offense ( 27.2 PPG ) and no team averaging more points per game than that of Kansas City ( 35.3 PPG ). However, Mother Nature is expected to play a huge role in this matchup with an “Arctic Blast” set to hit Arrowhead on Sunday. The frigid temps no doubt have the betting public of the belief points will be much tougher to come by.

Temps are expected to be in single digits over the course of the game, but wind likely isn’t going to be an issue. That bodes extremely well for both passing attacks so long as both Tom Brady’s and Patrick Mahomes’ targets don’t have their hands shatter when attempting to haul in the rock. These teams already participated in a barnburner back in Week 6 when the Patriots outlasted the Chiefs 43-40 in a back and forth affair that saw KC fall into an early hole but battle all the way back to make a game of it before ultimately falling by a field goal on the game’s final play.

Bet Patriots vs. Chiefs at

The Chiefs still ended up covering that game at top rated sportsbooks as 3.5 point underdogs, and because of it are seeing 53 percent of the wagering that’s gone down since the lines hit the board for this matchup. Kansas City was only upended once at home in the regular season, and it took a Herculean fourth quarter assault for the Chargers to pull the outright win as 3.5 point underdogs. The Pats have only closed as underdogs on the road in the playoffs four times dating back to 2006. They’re 1-3 SU and ATS in those matchups.

Why Bet the Patriots?

This is a silly question when you take the subject matter into account. You bet New England in the second season because it is the most dominating franchise in NFL history dating back to the turn of the century. Regardless of being favored or dogged, the Pats check in a moneymaking 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. The Chargers were trendy underdog selections in last week’s trip to Foxboro, and all the reigning AFC champs was step on their throat right from the outset of the game before cruising to the 41-28 win and cover as 4 point favorites at the best sportsbooks. Familiarity breeds success in these types of matchups, and if there was any team brimming with confidence and experience, it’s the New England Patriots.

Why Bet the Chiefs?

Because you’re sick and tired of the Patriots representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Of the last seven, New England has found its way in four times. They won two and lost two. Kansas City has only made two appearances in the grand game since its inception with the last coming all the way back in 1970 when they throttled the Minnesota Vikings 23-7 in Super Bowl IV. As good as the Rams, Saints and Patriots were in the regular season, it was the Chiefs that got NFL bettors excited. Even with the loss of pertinent pieces on both sides of the ball, the team has persevered and it looked fantastic in last week’s demolition of what was a white hot Indianapolis Colts team. KC’s defense has played with more confidence in recent weeks. If it can find a way to limit Sony Michel and company on the ground, I’d definitely take my chances in Mahomes being able to defeat Tom Brady in what I still expect to be a shootout regardless of Mother Nature being a party pooper.

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