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Vanderbilt vs. Florida ATS Picks

NCAAF Week 5 Odds

The chants in Nashville were incredibly loud at the start of Week 4.

“We Want Ba-Ma! We Want Ba-Ma!”

The Vanderbilt Commodores sure got Bama, indeed. They were beaten 59-0 by the Crimson Tide in their biggest home game in arguably decades. Now, they have to lick their wounds and head out on the road to play what will surely be an ugly game against the Florida Gators.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators
Date and Time
: Saturday, September 30, 2017, 12 p.m. ET
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Opening College Football Odds: Florida -9.5
Vanderbilt vs. Florida TV Coverage: ESPN

The good news for Vandy is that it can’t get any worse than last week. The Commodores were held to three first downs and outgained by darn near 600 yards by the Crimson Tide. That’s going to make their season numbers look awful, of course.

That said, the players on the field are a lot better than what they showed against the Tide. Kyle Shumur is still a respectable quarterback by SEC standards, and Ralph Webb is going to average more than the 2.6 yards per carry he’s put up for the season. Trent Sherfield still has 248 yards on just 14 receptions and is a truly speedy receiver that can change the course of a game in a single moment.

But maybe most embarrassing was what happened to the Vanderbilt defense. The Commodores came into that game last week with the top scoring defense in America. Sure, that was always overstated due to a lousy schedule, but Vanderbilt isn’t 59 points bad either.

The Gators are probably going to find that out the hard way if they keep up their shenanigans on the offensive side of the ball. Florida was down 27-14 in the fourth quarter against Kentucky, only to rally for two touchdowns in the final stanza to win the game.

We’re still not sure what in the heck Florida is doing with its quarterback rotation at this point. Feleipe Franks went the distance against Tennessee, and he played the whole first half against Kentucky. After going 3-and-out to start the second half, Luke Del Rio was tapped to play the rest of the game. He guided the Gators to their two touchdowns, and presumably, he’ll now take over as the starting quarterback.

But it’s growing ever-clearer to us with each passing snap we see a UF quarterback take: The Gators have three quarterbacks on their roster that have all played this year, but effectively, none of them are any good.

Betting Trends of Note

To say that the Commodores have been disrespected by the college football sportsbooks for years and years in Gainesville would be an understatement. This spread of 9.5-points is the shortest in a game between these two teams here at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium since they started coming up with betting lines consistently in the early-1990s. Take a look at the history of the lines themselves:

2015: -21
2013: -10.5
2011: -13
2009: -34.5
2007: -15.5
2005: -17.5
2003: -22.5
2001: -35.5
1999: -30
1997: -34.5
1995: -42
1993: -23
1989: -18.5

In their last 11 trips to the Swamp, the Commodores only have one victory, yet they have a 9-2 ATS mark.

Vanderbilt vs. Florida Free Picks

Doesn’t this Florida team just feel touched right now? The club fended off what should have been an upset in Lexington, and it got a Hail Mary on the final play of the game to beat Tennessee the week before it. That came on the heels of scoring 17 points against Michigan with the offense putting just three of those 17 points on the board.

It’s hard to go back to the well and suggest that the Gators are going to win a game they don’t cover, but we think that’s where we’re at again. The Commodores are going to run the heck out of the ball with Webb and be okay with punting time and time again. Florida will ultimately do just enough on offense, but it isn’t going to be easy. In fact, this game could end up being a downright mess, just like the 14-7 win for Vandy was over Kansas State a couple weeks ago.

College Football ATS Pick: Vanderbilt +9.5 at
College Football Score Prediction: Florida 13, Vanderbilt 10