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Toledo vs. Miami ATS Picks

NCAAF Week 4 Odds

South Florida was absolutely ripped to shreds by Hurricane Irma. Now, there's at least a chance to start the healing process with the power of sports. The Miami Hurricanes haven't been on the field since one of the biggest hurricanes ever ripped through South Beach, but they're going to be out there again when they take on the Toledo Rockets on Saturday afternoon.

Toledo Rockets vs. Miami Hurricanes
Date and Time
: Saturday, September 23, 2017, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Opening College Football Odds: Miami -12.5
Toledo vs. Miami TV Coverage: ACC Network

We'll figure out just how good the Hurricanes are at some point, but this probably isn't the day for that to happen. They've only got a win over Bethune-Cookman to their credit, and they weren't on the practice field or the game field for literally two full weeks since that point.

Mark Richt has said that it's like starting over again and having to get ready to play against a good team in the Canes de facto "Week 1."

What we do know about Miami is that Malik Rosier won the starting quarterback job and was great against BCU, throwing for 217 yards and three touchdowns without much in the way of passes even hitting the ground. Mark Walton and Travis Homer combined for 256 rushing yards, and Walton scored twice.

What else do we know about this game? Toledo is overachieving in a big time way this year already. The Rockets weren't expected to do much this season, but they already have three wins to their credit, the most improbable of which came last week at home against Tulsa.

FPI gave Toledo a four percent chance of beating the Golden Hurricane when it was down 28-7, but Logan Woodside let the troops back. He tied a school record with his six passing touchdowns and helped lead the Rockets to a whopping 679 yards of offense in a 54-51 victory.

Toledo's three wins have only combined to feature one cover of the three, but at least it has those three victories heading into the biggest non-conference game of the season.

Key Stat

4:24 – The longest amount of time Toledo spent on the field on a scoring drive last week against Tulsa.

The Rockets love to get up to the line of scrimmage and snap the ball as fast as possible. They've averaged 76 snaps per game this season and are averaging 7.27 yards per play. Woodside has a lot to do with that, of course with his 1,004 yards through the air and eight touchdowns.

But let's not forget about the Toledo running game, too. Terry Swanson and Art Thompkins have stepped in admirably for Kareem Hunt, who ran for 1,475 yards and 10 touchdowns last year and is now a featured running back for the Chiefs in the NFL as a rookie.

The Rockets were expected to take a big step backwards this season, but clearly, they've got the offensive chops to hang in there against the big boys.

Toledo vs. Miami Free Picks

This isn't a bad Toledo team that is going to be coming to the Sunshine State in this game. You might think that emotions will run high in Miami and the Canes will come out and slaughter the Rockets, but we're not so sure that’s going to be the case. The Hurricanes are ranked No. 17 in America, but we really don't know what they're made of yet.

What we do know is that all of the best NCAA football sportsbooks are hoping that you fall into the trap. The oddsmakers have set a line here that begs you to bet on Miami, and that only tells us one thing: Toledo is going to be live.

Look for Woodside and the Rockets to hang in there from start to finish. They probably aren't ultimately going to beat Miami on Saturday afternoon, but we'd bet that Rosier and Richt's starting offense will have to come up with some magic just put this game away.

College Football ATS Pick: Toledo +12.5 at
College Football Score Prediction: Miami 30, Toledo 27