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Texas State vs. Louisiana Lafayette ATS Picks

NCAAF Spreads on Week 7

When the Sun Belt has games on Thursday night, they often take undercard status to some of the bigger games on the board. With the ACC having to move the originally-scheduled Georgia Tech/Miami game thanks to Hurricane Irma, the Texas State Bobcats and Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are set to take centerstage in the only college football game of the night on Thursday.

Texas State Bobcats vs. Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Date and Time
: Thursday, October 12, 2017, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Cajun Field, Lafayette, LA
Opening College Football Odds: Louisiana Lafayette -14.5
Texas State vs. Louisiana Lafayette TV Coverage: ESPNU

With Hurricane Nate bearing down on the Bayou on Saturday into Sunday, it's a good thing that the Cajuns were about as far away from the storm as you could get at Idaho. The team played with a bit of a chip on its shoulder, winning 21-16 as 6.5-point underdogs.

Coach Mark Hudspeth said that Jordan Davis wouldn't play on Saturday at Idaho unless he was 100 percent healthy. That lasted all of three passes.

Davis never looked comfortable on his left knee and came out of the game after just one possession, giving way to Andre Nunez.

Nunez was remarkable, throwing for 213 yards and a touchdown. Sure, he was picked off once as well, but for a man who came in cold off of the bench, there isn't much to complain about. In fact, for our money, Nunez has been the better of the two quarterbacks this year for ULL, and it wouldn't be shocking if he started this game after beating the Vandals.

Texas State is still struggling in its transition to FBS. The team is just 1-5 this season and has surrendered at least 44 points in three straight games against UTSA, Wyoming and Louisiana Monroe. These aren't exactly world-beating teams the Bobcats are lining up against at the moment.

Still, in order to win this game, the Bobcats are going to have to put some points on the board. ULL has one of the worst defenses in America even after holding Idaho to just 279 yards and 16 points on Saturday afternoon at the Kibbie Dome.

Key Stat

.333 – The third down percentage allowed by the Texas State defense this season.

The Bobcats might have a lot of problems on the offensive side of the ball, but defensively, they've actually been one of the better teams in the land at getting off the field on third downs. Even last week's 7-for-16 performance against ULM wasn't all that bad.

The bigger concern has been allowing teams to stay on the field too long due to a lack of turnovers. The Bobcats still don't have an interception this year in six games, and they've only forced a total of four turnovers; only five teams in America have fewer.

Texas State vs. Louisiana Lafayette Free Picks

Though turnovers can be construed as good fortune, bad offense can't. Texas State had an explosion last week at home against ULM, amassing 236 yards and 20 points in the first quarter of the game. The rest of the way, the club had just 150 total yards and seven points, averaging 3.49 yards per play in the process.

Damian Williams just doesn't cut it as a starting quarterback at the FBS level. He's barely completing half of his passes, and he looks to run before he throws more often than not.

The ground game had its first really nice day of the season against the Warhawks with Anthony Taylor running for 102 yards on 15 carries.

Even though the Ragin' Cajuns are far from good, they've at least got a pulse offensively. If they can get into the 30s, they shouldn't have a problem logging a victory, even if they do turn out to be relatively public at all of the top online sportsbooks.

College Football ATS Pick: Louisiana Lafayette -14.5 at
College Football Score Prediction: Louisiana Lafayette 34, Texas State 14