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TCU vs. Oklahoma ATS Picks

NCAAF Week 11 Picks

The TCU Horned Frogs put themselves on the map this year when they were able to come to Stillwater and beat Oklahoma State. If they can return to the Sooner State for a second time and deliver a fatal blow to the season of the Oklahoma Sooners, they're going to have a real shot of getting into the College Football Playoff.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Date and Time
: Saturday, November 11, 2017, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
Opening College Football Odds: Oklahoma -8
TCU vs. Oklahoma TV Coverage: FOX

If Baker Mayfield didn't make himself the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy last week at Oklahoma State, he sure got himself back into the discussion in a hurry. Once a 14 to 1 longshot to claim college football's top honor, Mayfield went on the road and dropped 598 yards and five touchdowns on the Cowboys. It was Mayfield's second top-10 upset of the season on the road, and that has to count for something.

Oklahoma now has at least 480 yards of offense in 19 consecutive games dating back to last year, and the only loss in the bunch was the defeat at home against Iowa State that shook up the entire nation.

However, the Sooners are definitively for real now. They've got the top offense in America at 608.2 yards per game and the top passing game in the nation at 395.0 yards per game.

If that's not enough to put Oklahoma in the running for the College Football Playoff and Mayfield at the top of the Heisman Trophy list, we're not sure what will.

Let's remember that TCU isn't exactly a pushover either. We've almost forgotten about the Horned Frogs a little bit since their showing loss at Iowa State two weeks ago, but they've still got a shot to play their way into the National Championship picture if they can win this game.

The TCU defense has been brilliant this year. The Frogs held Oklahoma State to 31 points (no small feat) and West Virginia to 24. Since that game, they've kept Kansas State, Kansas, Iowa State and Texas to a total of 27 points in four games.

The winner of this game will essentially be guaranteed a spot in the Big XII Championship Game, as that team would have just two games left to play in conference with nothing but cupcakes left on the docket.

Key Factor

Part of the reason why TCU has excelled on defense is the fact that it's able to get pressure from just rushing three or four at the point of attack. The Horned Frogs quietly have one of the better defensive lines in America, and that's giving the back seven the ability to hang out in coverage for longer periods of time without getting burned.

This matchup should play well against Oklahoma. Mayfield was just stupid against the blitz last week against Oklahoma State, going 11-for-16 for 304 yards and four touchdowns, the most passing yards any Power Five quarterback has had in a game against the blitz in the last five seasons.

The Horned Frogs are very likely to take the same sort of path Texas did against Oklahoma by trying to hold linebackers in the box without blitzing to take away the running game while getting pressure from their front four. It was effective for the Longhorns. It could be for TCU as well.

TCU vs. Oklahoma Free Picks

Dare we say that we think the wrong team is favored in this game at all of the best college football sportsbooks? Both of these teams basically have the exact same resume at this point, though we'll certainly concede that Oklahoma should be the higher-ranked of the two teams because of its win at Ohio State.

But both have a win in Stillwater and both have a loss to Iowa State to their credit. They can both score at will for sure, though obviously, Mayfield is the better of the two quarterbacks.

The difference, though, is set to be the TCU defense. Gary Patterson has had a tremendous amount of luck in these Big XII road games over the years, and we think he's poised for another big run. The Frogs were snubbed from the College Football Playoff in the first year of its existence. They won't be after beating Oklahoma on Saturday.

College Football ATS Pick: TCU +8 at BookMaker.eu
College Football Score Prediction: TCU 41, Oklahoma 28