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TCU vs. Kansas State ATS Picks

On Week 7 NCAAF Odds

The TCU Horned Frogs woke up on Sunday as the only undefeated team left in the Big XII. They've gone from the presumptive third choices in the conference to miles in front of the two Oklahoma schools in a span of just two weeks. But as anyone knows who watches Big XII football religiously, this road trip in Week 7 against the Kansas State Wildcats could be the undoing of any team in the land.

TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Date and Time
: Saturday, October 14, 2017, 12 p.m. ET
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Opening College Football Odds: Check Back Later
TCU vs. Kansas State TV Coverage: FOX Sports 1

If the Horned Frogs do stay in it this year, it would be hard to not at least consider Kenny Hill for the Heisman Trophy. Hill had his Heisman moment last week when he scored touchdowns in three different ways against West Virginia.

For the season, Hill has thrown for 1,153 yards and 10 touchdowns and rushed for 89 yards and another score, plus he has that 48-yard receiving touchdown last week against West Virginia.

TCU doesn't strike you as a team that should be averaging near 500 yards and over 40 points per game, but there really hasn't been a huge sweat of a game yet this year. Last week's 31-24 victory over the Mountaineers was back and forth for a while, but there was never a point you would have thought the men in purple were actually going to lose.

Kansas State has been in every game it has played this season. The Wildcats were beaten in overtime last week at Texas and were downed 14-7 at Vanderbilt in Week 3. Aside from that, there's nothing but wins on the ledger, albeit against three particularly bad teams.

Jesse Ertz is a gamer. He's not the most talented man in the world, and his football career will be over when he's done in the "Little Apple." Yet Ertz still has thrown for 930 yards and rushed for 336 more, leading the team by accounting for 10 total touchdowns.

Outside of Isaiah Zuber, the other three top receivers for KSU are posting ridiculous yards per catch averages. Dalton Schoen is good for 24.5 yards per reception, while Byron Pringle and Isaiah Harris are at 24.9 and 27.6 yards per catch respectively.

Injury Report

Ertz had to sit out the overtime period last week against Texas after suffering a knee injury. Sophomore Alex Delton did the best that he could to hold the fort, but the Longhorns were always going to win that shootout in the extra frame with Ertz down.

This is going to be a huge factor as the week wears on. Ertz already had a knee injury coming into the game against Texas and was considered to be questionable. He gritted through the pain and played a huge game before getting whacked on a running play in which he probably could have slid and avoided contact.

But Bill Snyder summed this up the best when talking about Ertz and his tenacity.

"We don't work on sliding. That's another sport."

TCU vs. Kansas State Free Picks

Obviously if Ertz can't go, this turns into a cakewalk of a game for the Horned Frogs. As of the writing of this article, we're going to assume that Ertz is going to give it a go as he did against Texas. If he can turn another performance in which he goes 12-for-18 for 224 yards and two touchdowns like he did in Austin, this is going to end up being one heck of a game.

Gary Patterson's crew has found ways to win games this year by dominating at the point of attack, and we think that the Frogs will ultimately find a way to get the job done regardless of who is under center. But there's no way we're going to be laying any sizeable amount of points at any of the best online sportsbooks against a team that is one of the stingiest in the land.

College Football ATS Pick: Take the Points with Kansas State at BookMaker.eu
College Football Score Prediction: TCU 30, Kansas State 27