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South Florida vs. UCF ATS Picks

NCAAF Week 13 Picks

All season long, the South Florida Bulls and UCF Knights have been salivating for this Black Friday game against each other. The chips are literally all on the table in this one, as the winner of this game will likely control its own destiny to get into the New Year's Six while the loser will suddenly see its regular season come to an abrupt halt without even getting a trip to the AAC Championship Game.

South Florida Bulls vs. UCF Knights
Date and Time
: Friday, November 24, 2017, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, FL
Opening College Football Odds: UCF -9.5
South Florida vs. UCF TV Coverage: ABC

There hasn't been a lot separating these two teams this year. Both teams have fantastic offenses and suitable defenses, and both are certainly going to be questioned for the schedule they've played against this year.

The AAC is certainly the strongest of the Group of Five conferences, but neither one of these teams has a win on its docket to be all that proud of.

For South Florida, this game is about so much more than the AAC East title. The Bulls would love to stick it to their arch rivals from up the road on I-4, but the bigger factor here is respect.

The Bulls were shaky in the second half last week offensively against Tulsa, but they did get the job done to stay in the AAC title race.

Quinton Flowers is, of course, the difference-maker for USF. He has 2,097 passing yards and 870 rushing yards to lead the Bulls in both categories, and he's accounted for 26 total touchdowns against just five interceptions.

Though South Florida was a little sleepy last week, UCF had no such problems. The Knights were in a nasty trap spot against Temple in the City of Brotherly Love in Week 12, but they were able to persevere with a 45-19 victory.

This is amazingly still the top scoring team in America at 48.2 points per game. Scott Frost has developed McKenzie Milton into one of the top quarterbacks in mid-major football, and it's no wonder why he's being talked about for a number of the best jobs in the country that either are available or are set to open up in the next few weeks.

Matchup to Watch

Frost was always going to get this offense in order this year, but what has made UCF so dangerous has been its defense. The senior leadership on this defense is something else, most notably the one-armed linebacker, Shaq Griffin. There is a total of four seniors that start in this front seven, and these are the men that have to remember what happened last season against USF the most.

The Bulls racked up 351 yards offense in last year's 48-31 win, a victory that was capped off by D'Ernest Johnson running up the score just a bit with 11 seconds left to play.

If South Florida can average 7.3 yards per rush once again as it did last year in this game, it's going to pull off this upset and setup a date with Memphis for the AAC title. If not, the Bulls are going to have some big problems, because their defense has let them down a ton in clutch situations this season.

South Florida vs. UCF Free Picks

South Florida is going to hear all week long that it should be the underdog in this game at all of the best NCAA football sportsbooks. We're not buying it, though.

UCF has been a nice story, and if it wins this game and beats Memphis, it deserves its shot at the big boys in the New Year's Six. However, the Knights really haven't played much of anyone this season, and it's hard to really say they're 9.5-points better than USF when both teams are playing at their best.

Flowers is the best player on the field, and we're not sure that he doesn't play for the better team, too. UCF's dream campaign feels like it's going to come one victory short to us.

College Football ATS Pick: South Florida +9.5 at BookMaker.eu
College Football Score Prediction: South Florida 38, UCF 30