South Alabama Jaguars vs. Troy Trojans
Date and Time: Wednesday, October 11, 2017, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Veterans Memorial Stadium, Troy, AL
Opening College Football Odds: Troy -17
South Alabama vs. Troy TV Coverage: ESPN2
The likelihood of Troy getting into the New Year's Six this year is slim, but there's a decent chance that it could finish the season with more than a few Top 25 votes. The Trojans won't have another game this year in which they won't be favored, save for perhaps a clash at Arkansas State to end the regular season. Even then, all that anyone is going to remember is how the Trojans walked into Baton Rouge at night and legitimately outplayed the Tigers.
This year's team has been living dangerously, though. Troy only has one big win, that coming over Alcorn State. Aside from that, the team beat New Mexico State by a field goal, Akron by five and LSU by three. All five games have stayed under the total, while the first four were all ATS losses.
Still, the Trojans are the class of the Sun Belt this year, the only team with just one loss amongst the dozen in the league.
South Alabama has just one win in its four games, but it's hard to really blame it. The team has only been favored in two of its five duels this year, and one of those was against Alabama A&M.
Still, the Jaguars covered Ole Miss in Week 1 as 21.5-point pups, and they were unlucky not to beat Idaho in overtime two and a half weeks ago.
Ankle injuries have slowed down both Dallas Davis and Cole Garvin this year for South Alabama. The Jaguars' quarterbacks have both been suspect this year anyway, but the fact that neither one can ultimately seem to stay healthy is putting the team in a real bind.
There isn't a third legitimate quarterback behind these two, and there's a good chance that it doesn't matter which one starts on Wednesday night.
Garvin is the preferred quarterback for coach Joey Jones, but Davis has started the team's last two games.
That said, both men were back at practice at the tail end of last week, and that figures to be a sign that Garvin is going to end up being the starter.
South Alabama vs. Troy Free Picks
Troy is going to be far too public for our liking in this game. The Trojans have an underrated offense, one that is averaging 431.2 yards per game yet a disproportionate 24.0 points per game. Still, anyone who watched that game against LSU knows just how dangerous Brandon Silvers and Jordan Chunn can be.
Chunn ran for 191 yards on 30 carries against the Bayou Bengals, and most will assume that he can do that again versus a badly undersized South Alabama front seven. However, Chunn also had just 20 carries for 87 yards against New Mexico State and 11 rushes for 41 yards against Boise State. If he isn't at his best, Silvers isn't the type of quarterback who is often able to put the team on his back and guide it to victory by himself.
The oddsmakers are going to try to bait you into the trap of laying the lumber with Troy at all of the best online sportsbooks. South Alabama might be 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games overall dating back to last season, but the game that preceded that streak was a near-miss in a 28-21 loss to these Trojans. This could end up being nearly as close of a game, even playing at Troy.
College Football ATS Pick: South Alabama +17 at BookMaker.eu
College Football Score Prediction: Troy 30, South Alabama 19