San Diego State Aztecs vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Date and Time: Friday, October 14, 2016, 10 p.m. ET
Location: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, CA
Week 7 College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu: San Diego State -16
San Diego State vs. Fresno State TV Coverage: CBS Sports Network
San Diego State has dropped off a bit over the course of the last couple weeks. After scoring 31, 45 and 42 in its first three games of the season, the team put up just 24 in a loss to South Alabama and 26 against a bad UNLV team in a narrow victory.
The Aztecs though, are still mighty dangerous because of their defense. By MWC standards, they've got a fantastic defense, one that is allowing just 314.8 yards and 23.4 points per game. Best of all is their rush defense, one that's allowing only 102.0 yards per game.
How Fresno State plans on moving the ball against the Aztecs, we're not all that sure. This is a team that ranks No. 113 in rushing the ball, and Chason Virgil is completing just 48.7 percent of his passes.
The good news is that the Bulldogs do average 6.5 yards per pass attempt as a team, and though that number isn't good at all, it's at least a good sign that they can work the ball down the field, albeit with horrible inefficiency.
Part of the reason why San Diego State has looked mortal these last couple weeks offensively is because Donnel Pumphrey has been merely really good instead of out of this world. The Aztecs' back has rushed the ball 56 times in these last two games, but he "only" has 292 yards. Those are fantastic numbers, but when you dedicate so much of your offense to one man and expect him to carry the load, you really need massive, massive games out of him week in and week out.
Maybe the problem is a case of Pumphrey wearing down a little bit. He hasn't been nearly as sharp in the fourth quarters of games for the most part, and we have to remember that he's just 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds. Now, he has to play on a short week. This could be a really interesting man to watch as this game progresses, though it should be noted that the Bulldogs rank No. 126 in the nation against the run at 273.3 yards per game.
San Diego State vs. Fresno State Free Picks
All of the signs point to the Aztecs running the Bulldogs off the field on their home turf in Week 7. They're favored by 16-points on the odds at BookMaker.eu, and they've got one of the best running backs in the nation going against one of the worst rush defenses in America.
However, we're not all that sure that's going to be the case. This is a short week for both of these teams, and we don't love the idea of Pumphrey getting the ball in his gut another 30 times on just five days of rest.
The Bulldogs have hung in there against SDSU of late, covering four of the last five in this series since the two have joined together in the Mountain West. That's a good sign for sure in this one, and we think they'll snare another cover by hitting the backdoor with a bit of a fourth quarter surge when all hope seems to be lost.
San Diego State vs. Fresno State ATS Pick: Fresno State +16 at BookMaker.eu
San Diego State vs. Fresno State Score Prediction: San Diego State 34, Fresno State 20