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Purdue vs. Missouri ATS Picks

Pro Week 3 NCAAF lines

Give the Purdue Boilermakers this much: They haven't been afraid to go up against a brutal non-conference schedule this year. After playing a neutral site game against Louisville and hosting arguably one of the best teams in the MAC in Ohio, the Boilers are headed to SEC country to take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia before starting off the brutal Big Ten docket.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Missouri Tigers
Date and Time
: Saturday, September 16, 2017, 4 p.m. ET
Location: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Opening College Football Odds: Missouri -7
Purdue vs. Missouri TV Coverage: SEC Network

By definition, a 1-1 start to the campaign isn't wildly successful for coach Jeff Brohm in his first season on the job at Purdue. That said, he pushed a Louisville team that could have the second ever two-time Heisman Trophy winner on it to the brink when the Boilermakers were 25.5-point underdogs and beat the snot out of a good Ohio team that could win the MAC when they were only -3 at home.

Thus Purdue looks to be pointed towards a bowl game this year, and that would be a massive accomplishment.

At some point, though, the Boilermakers do have to decide on a quarterback. For our money, David Blough should have won this job when he came off the bench in relief of Elijah Sindelar and put 24 points on the board in a span of four drives last week against Ohio. Sindelar is the man who Brohm really wants to put out there because of his athletic capability, but Blough is certainly the better passer of the bunch.

There is no such quarterback controversy in Columbia. Drew Lock is going to be the man the Tigers ride or die with all year long.

In Week 1 against Missouri State, Lock was a beast, throwing for 521 yards and seven touchdowns. Week 2? Not so much. South Carolina held Lock down to just 245 yards and one touchdown against two interceptions.

Key Stat

22:24 – The number representing Missouri's time of possession against South Carolina in last week's 31-13 loss.

The Tigers play at a breakneck pace and got 69 plays in during that 22 and a half minutes. But that's putting a slew of pressure on this defense. Lock went just 14-of-32, and that created 14 third down plays. When Missouri is moving the chains and creating first downs, it's a team that can beat just about anyone in the SEC, particularly in the East. When it's going three-and-out, this defense couldn't stop a paper bag let alone one of the sneakier offenses in the Big Ten like Purdue is bringing to the table.

Purdue vs. Missouri Free Picks

We're willing to throw out basically all of the defensive numbers for Purdue at this point. The Boilermakers have played against two really good offenses, and this is a third one. The biggest question? Is a young team with an unsettled quarterback battle really going to be able to go on the road early in the season and win a game in SEC Country?

The fact of the matter is that Purdue really didn't handle the speedy Cardinals all that well in Week 1 and got very fortunate to force three fumbles. Louisville also beat itself to the tune of 16 penalties for 110 yards. Missouri isn't the most disciplined team on the face of the earth, but it's going to have to hurt itself a lot to lose this game.

The Tigers also have to have a bit of desperation here. Losing back-to-back games at home with a slew of SEC games left to come is going to put this team in bad shape when it comes to getting into a bowl game. We suspect we'll get the good version of Lock in this game. If that's the case and the Tigers get off 80 snaps, they should put enough points on the board to put the Boilers down.

College Football ATS Pick: Play Missouri at
College Football Score Prediction: Missouri 48, Purdue 35