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Oregon State at Colorado ATS Picks

NCAAF Week 5 Lines

What a start to the season for the Colorado Buffaloes! Colorado has been extremely impressive through its first four games, pasting rival Colorado State and knocking off Oregon in Eugene. Now the Buffaloes find themselves in an unfamiliar situation, as a favorite, for just the second time in Mike MacIntyre’s four-year tenure as head coach. A win against the Oregon State Beavers in Week 5 of college football would match his best win total to date in Boulder.

Oregon State Beavers at Colorado Buffaloes
Date and Time
: Saturday, October 1 2016, 2:30 p.m. ET
Location: Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado
Week 5 College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu: Colorado -16.5
Oregon State at Colorado TV Coverage: PAC-12 Network

It’s been a magical start for Colorado. The Buffaloes won their first two games by a combined score of 100-14 and for the first time in years the offense looks potent. Colorado is averaging 42.3 PPG and was even able to move the ball on a Michigan defense that many consider to be one of the best in the country.

That offense has been the reason why the Buffaloes are off to a 4-0 ATS start, but Vegas has caught on to Colorado now. Colorado has not been a double-digit favorite in a conference game yet this decade, but will be in this one.

Oregon State looks better than it did last season, but it still has a long way to go under Gary Andersen. The Beavers have struggled offensively despite averaging 28 PPG, but the defense has held its own. They are holding opponents to just a shade over 5 yards per pass attempt and those numbers are great in the pass happy PAC-12.

The next step for the Beavers will be to win their first conference game. They went 0-9 last season in PAC-12 play and this will be their first crack in 2016.

Matchup to Watch

Can Oregon State move the ball through the air at all? If the Beavers are going to succeed against the Buffaloes in Boulder, they will need to be able to have success in the passing game. Through three games, it doesn’t look like Darell Garretson is the answer.

Garretson was dreadful before leaving the Boise State game due to an injury. He averaged a bit over 3 yards per pass attempt against the Broncos in his one half of action and that left the Beavers in a 31-7 hole. He was replaced by walk-on freshman Conor Blount and Blount may get the start if Garretson is unable to go. Whoever starts though, must be able to get the ball to Victor Bolden, one of the few playmakers on this team.

Key Stat

While Oregon State’s quarterbacks have had issues, Colorado has had awesome results from their signal callers through the first month of the season. Sefo Liufau shined through the first two-and-a-half games of the season, but suffered an ankle injury against Michigan and that cost the Buffaloes a chance at pulling off what would have been their biggest win since joining the PAC-12.

Liufau was a question mark to go against Oregon and when it came out that Steven Montez would get the start, almost everyone wrote off the Buffs. However, Montez was able to produce 468 total yards of offense and although he threw two interceptions, he was very solid in the upset of the Ducks. It’s unclear if Liufau will be healthy enough to play or not, but if he can’t go yet again Montez has proven more than capable.

Oregon State at Colorado Free Picks

Colorado is a 16.5-point favorite according to odds at BookMaker.eu and that feels a bit high. After years of being dreadful, everyone wants to believe that the Buffaloes are ready to return to prominence, but this is too big of a spread too soon. The Buffaloes still have question marks throughout the defense and a wily coach like Andersen can exploit them. Colorado is going to get the win, but Oregon State will play well enough to get the cover.

Oregon State at Colorado ATS Pick: Oregon State +16.5 at BookMaker.eu

Oregon State at Colorado Score Prediction: Colorado 37 – Oregon State 24