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Oklahoma vs. Kansas State ATS Picks

On Week 8 NCAAF Lines

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee has to be wondering who in the heck these Oklahoma Sooners are. They looked like gangbusters at the start of the season, complete with Baker Mayfield planted the crimson and cream flag in the middle of the 'O' at Ohio Stadium.

These last three games, though, the Sooners have looked awfully mediocre. If they play like that on the road against the Kansas State Wildcats in Week 8, they'll be headed for a season-ending defeat.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Date and Time
: Saturday, October 21, 2017, 4 p.m. ET
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Opening College Football Odds: Oklahoma -12.5
Oklahoma vs. Kansas State TV Coverage: FOX

For as gritty as Jesse Ertz has been throughout his career at Kansas State, he wasn't able to give it a go last week against TCU. The Wildcats were thoroughly dominated in a 26-6 loss with Alex Delton under center, and it's a wonder how on earth that game was even kept that close.

The Wildcats might be gritty, but they're just 3-3 after being in the top 20 in the land earlier this season before a loss at Vanderbilt. Since they went into that Vandy game at 2-0, the Cats have been beaten by the Commodores, Texas and TCU, and the one win in the bunch came against a Baylor team that is the only Power Five school in America without a victory on the season.

It's reasonable to pose the question now whether K-State will even reach a bowl game this year. There should be wins to be had against Kansas and Iowa State down the line, but aside from that, the Wildcats have this game, a roadie at Texas Tech, a home game against West Virginia and a seemingly hopeless game in Stillwater against Oklahoma State.

The Sooners are a bit dinged up right now for sure. Abdul Adams, perhaps the team's best rusher, missed the Red River Rivalry against Texas with a foot injury. Baker Mayfield also had a scary incident in which he was down for a few minutes after a late hit. Though Mayfield returned to the game, he was never really the same, including the moment when he threw his first interception of the season.

The good news for the Sooners is that they did win the game over Texas 29-24, though there were some tremendously nervy moments in there against a gritty set of Longhorns.

Betting Trends of Note

For all of the great accolades that Bill Snyder has gotten and deserves for his career, he hasn't been good against ranked teams. The Wildcats are just 22-49-1 against ranked clubs in Snyder's career. Sure, there have been some big wins against the Sooners in that mix, but the overall body of work shows that those are really more of a nice surprise than the norm.

Worse for Kansas State is the fact that it's 0-3-1 ATS this season against Power Five teams. This is off of a season in which it was just 5-6 ATS against power conference foes.

The Wildcats have excelled in games which they've been middling underdogs, but as big dogs, they've been awfully bad. Kansas State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as dogs of more than a touchdown dating back to the end of the 2015 season. The last time the team won a game in which it was bigger than a touchdown underdog came against this very same Oklahoma team back in 2012 in Norman.

Oklahoma vs. Kansas State Free Picks

The Sooners still don't seem quite right to us, and we don't see any reason why they're set to be such big favorites at all of the top internet sportsbooks. This club is nothing special defensively, and though the offense is certainly explosive, that doesn't mean that it's going to put 35-40 points on the board against the Wildcats.

If Ertz comes back in the fold as we expect to be the case, we think the Wildcats can push this game right down to the wire. Maybe Mayfield finds a way to get the job done in the end, but there's no way we're laying the points.

College Football ATS Pick: Kansas State +12.5 at BookMaker.eu
College Football Score Prediction: Oklahoma 30, Kansas State 27