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Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech ATS Picks

NCAAF Week 5 Odds

If you’re a fan of the Arena Football League, you’re probably going to love this shootout in Week 5 between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Defense is relatively optional for both of these teams, and obviously, these two offenses can light the world on fire.

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Date and Time
: Saturday, September 30, 2017, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Opening College Football Odds: Oklahoma State -11
Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech TV Coverage: FOX

All of that talk about Oklahoma State being a dark horse contender for the College Football Playoff? Forget about that. The Cowboys were beaten by a good TCU team last weekend, and that now brings up questions of just how good they really are. We probably aren’t going to get any answers this week in Lubbock, nor will we in three weeks the next time the team is on the field against Baylor at home.

That said, we know the Cowboys have a lot of work to do. TCU made Mason Rudolph look rather ordinary. Sure, he averaged 9.7 yards per pass attempt and threw for 398 yards, but Rudolph also made two mistakes with interceptions. With this suspect defense on the other side of the field, the Cowboys can’t afford to make two big mistakes like that and live to tell about it.

Oklahoma State was held to just 10 points midway through the third quarter before starting to open things up, but it was far too late by the time the Pokes cracked the code of the Horned Frogs’ defense.

Kliff Kingsbury badly needed his Red Raiders to get off to a good start this year, and that’s exactly what has happened. Texas Tech has rolled off three straight wins to start the year, including a mild upset of Houston last week to end the Cougars’ 16-game home winning streak.

Ironically, it was the defense that really stepped up for the Red Raiders, holding a good Houston offense to just 24 points on a day that Nic Shimonek struggled just a bit. Still, this team is based on its offense for sure, and it can’t think its defense is going to hold anybody good in the Big 12 in the 20s.

Recent Matchups

It’s really hard to not look back at the history of this series and wonder where in the heck the defenses are going to get any stops from. Last year’s game featured a total of 87.5, the highest in the history of the rivalry. The game just narrowly squeaked over with a 45-44 Okie State triumph.

That’s now five straight over contests between these two clubs dating back to 2012. The last time a game went under the total was in 2011, and the Cowboys scored 66 points against a total of 79 and still couldn’t get the game to the number.

In that span, Oklahoma State has averaged 54.2 points and 568.5 yards per game. The Red Raiders have averaged 37.4 points per game in that span, yet they haven’t won a single game.

Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Free Picks

It’ll be interesting to see just how high this total opens up when all of the top online sportsbooks release their numbers. It won’t be as high as the 87.5 last year, but it’ll be way up there and one of the highest for the season for sure.

That said, we think Oklahoma State was badly exploited and exposed last week by the Horned Frogs. Texas Tech’s defense isn’t big and physical like TCU’s is, but it might take a lesson or two in the form of blitzing the heck out of Rudolph and hoping that’s good enough.

Last year, the Red Raiders had the Cowboys on the ropes in Stillwater. We can’t help but wonder if they’re going to do the same thing on Saturday night in Lubbock. This game won’t be a walk in the park for OSU.

College Football ATS Pick: Texas Tech +11 at
College Football Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 35