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Missouri vs. Georgia ATS Picks

NCAAF Week 7 Lines

Kirby Smart has a new starting quarterback and a team that is quietly marching towards a de facto national quarterfinal against Alabama or Auburn in the SEC Championship Game. The Georgia Bulldogs have been ridiculously workmanlike this year, and now that they've unofficially/officially declared Jake Fromm their new starting quarterback, they've got a clear direction. Saturday's tussle with the Missouri Tigers doesn't figure to provide much of a challenge.

Missouri Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Date and Time
: Saturday, October 14, 2017, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA
Opening College Football Odds: Georgia -29.5
Missouri vs. Georgia TV Coverage: SEC Network

Jacob Eason was one of the top quarterback recruits in America two years ago, and he really held his own as a freshman starter in the SEC last season. It's not his fault that he got hurt right at the outset of the season, and it's not his fault that he can't get back on the field now that he's healthy.

It's just that Smart realizes that he has a hot hand in Fromm, and he isn't taking the ball away from him until he has to.

Fromm really hasn't done anything spectacular in recent games. He threw for just 102 yards against Vanderbilt and 84 against Tennessee the week prior. Yet what he's doing is adding some athleticism to this offense and giving teams something else to think about alongside Nick Chubb and Sony Michel.

Michel and Chubb were both over 100 yards on the ground versus Vandy's underrated defense, and when this UGA team is running for well over 200 yards, it's virtually impossible to beat.

The Missouri offense is just flat out bizarre. The team scored three touchdowns last week against Kentucky that covered at least 50 yards. It amassed 568 yards in what truly was its best offensive game in a while in the SEC. That said, the Tigers only held the ball for 23:51, something that is not new.

Last week's game against the Wildcats marked the fourth in a row in which the Tigers' defense was on the field for at least 34 minutes. In a related story, this defense ranks No. 122 in America in scoring at 40.0 points per game.

Key Factor

The Bulldogs have a history this season of coming out of the blocks fast defensively in every half of football they play. In fact, they haven't allowed a single touchdown to be scored against them in either the first quarter or the third quarter this season, surrendering just a single field goal in each quarter over the course of the first six games of the season.

Missouri's offense is all about playing fast and getting started in a hurry. When first down results in a negative play, drives are generally over with fairly quickly, and for a team that tries to run at a breakneck pace, that can wear down this defense.

There's a reason why Missouri has ultimately scored just 34 points in the first halves of games this season against FBS teams. The Tigers are not surprisingly 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in said games, and the only one they've actually been in at the end was last week's 40-34 loss to Kentucky.

Missouri vs. Georgia Free Picks

We hate counting on a team that virtually never actually gets inside of the red zone, but we think Georgia could be caught napping a little bit in this game. The Dawgs have their bye week next week, then comes what could be the de facto SEC East title game against Florida. We saw Iowa State do the same thing to Oklahoma in Week 6.

In the end, we think that Eason is going to be the savior for Georgia in this one. Now that Fromm is comfortable as the starting quarterback, we wonder if things are going to be a little different. He hasn't proven that he can keep up in a shootout when he has to, and if the UGA defense falls apart a bit and allows 20+ points for the first time this year, we'll have to see what the kid is made of.

After a lackluster first half, Eason will come in and ultimately save the day for the Dawgs. But this massive point spread as set by the college football sportsbooks won't nearly be covered.

College Football ATS Pick: Missouri +29.5 at
College Football Score Prediction: Georgia 38, Missouri 28