Miami Redhawks vs. Ohio Bobcats
Date and Time: Tuesday, October 31, 2017, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Peden Stadium, Athens, OH
Opening College Football Odds: Check Back Later
Miami vs. Ohio TV Coverage: ESPN2
Rare is the team in the MAC that gets through this conference without at least one mind-numbing loss, and we saw that a few weeks ago with Ohio when it was stunned by Central Michigan 26-23 as a 10.5-point favorite.
The Bobcats have been crippling opponents aside from that, scoring 58, 48 and 48 points in its three games surrounding that loss. They've covered their last five spreads as well aside from the one dud versus the Chippewas.
Ohio has a ferocious three-headed running game this year led by A.J. Ouellette, Dorian Brown and quarterback Nathan Rourke. All three men are averaging over six yards per carry, and they combined for 23 touchdowns. Rourke already has 23 total scores this season on his own if you include the 10 he has as a passer.
The Redhawks have a history of coming on strong at the end of the season. They won their last six games last season after starting 0-6, and they're going to have a chance to replicate that same sort of success this year after starting 2-5. They took a nice first step by beating Buffalo 24-14 a week and a half ago, but these next two games against the top teams in the MAC East are going to be tough.
Miami has already coughed up games against Bowling Green as a 17-point favorite and Kent State as an 8.5-point favorite, and it was beaten by both Marshall and Cincinnati as short favorites in September.
132 – The maximum number of rushing yards Miami has had in a game against Ohio over the course of the last 10 meetings between the MAC East schools.
The Redhawks have generally been pass-first over the years, but the fact that they've averaged just 76.9 rushing yards per game against Ohio dating back to 2007 is wild. In a related story, the Bobcats are 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these teams, too.
The good news is that this team's Miami team should do better than even the 132 yards from 10 seasons ago. Kenny Young and Alonzo Smith make up a formidable backfield now behind a respectable offensive line. If Young and Smith, who have combined for 1,029 yards and five touchdowns this season, can at least keep the Redhawks moving on the ground, they'll have a shot at this upset.
Miami vs. Ohio Free Picks
It isn't often that we talk about a MAC school being horribly overrated or horribly underrated, but just watching the way that all of the college football sportsbooks have adjusted the game lines in Miami games tells you that this team is still really darn good.
You've got to be pretty good to lose four times as favorites in the same season, and we think the Redhawks are absolutely good enough to do so. They'll be huge dogs in a game against a team that has dominated them over the years, but we think they're worth playing in this one.
Remember that Miami has only had one game this year – at Notre Dame – in which it was beaten by more than one score. Ohio is routinely a double-digit favorite in these middling MAC contests, but we think there's a real chance that it could end up getting upset. This Halloween night upset could be frightening.
College Football ATS Pick: Take the Points with Miami at BookMaker.eu
College Football Score Prediction: Miami 28, Ohio 25