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Connecticut vs. UCF ATS Picks

NCAAF Betting Week 11

The UCF Knights' path to the College Football Playoff was helped out a bit last week when several teams in front of them were beaten. That said, realistically speaking, a spot in the New Year's Six is all that Scott Frost's team can really hope for at this point. A win over the Connecticut Huskies at home should be a foregone conclusion.

Connecticut Huskies vs. UCF Knights
Date and Time
: Saturday, November 11, 2017, 12 p.m. ET
Location: Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, FL
Opening College Football Odds: Check Back Later
Connecticut vs. UCF TV Coverage: ESPNU

The Huskies have largely been overmatched this season, but at least they have covers in three of their last four games after starting off the campaign at 0-5 ATS. Their 37-20 loss to South Florida was worse than it seems. Connecticut was down 34-7 at the end of the third quarter and rallied for two touchdowns in an eight-minute span in the final stanza to make the final score slightly more respectable.

There has to be a real concern here for the UConn defense. The Huskies rank dead last in America against the pass, allowing 378.6 yards per game, and they're second-to-last in total defense at 554.3 yards per game allowed. With a UCF offense coming to town that is the top-scoring team in the land, it's going to be hard to see how the visitors are going to manage to get anything in the way of stops.

UCF just keeps on keeping on. The Knights' defense played really well against SMU last week in a 31-24 victory. The offense made its mistakes in this win, and this was the type of game that easily could have gone out of whack in a hurry.

The Knights are hoping that wins over the Huskies, Temple and South Florida at the end of the regular season and presumably Memphis in the AAC Championship Game can at least keep them in the National Championship discussion, but that's a farfetched scenario at this point.

Key Factor

The Knights are only snapping the ball 67.8 times per game this season, but it feels like they operate significantly faster than that. The fact of the matter is that Frost takes his foot off the gas pedal frequently in the fourth quarters of games that are already won, and that's really helping keep the offensive figures down.

But let's not take anything away from UCF. The Knights are averaging 8.0 yards every time they snap the ball, including 10.9 yards per pass and 5.7 yards per carry. They're averaging 18.4 points per game in the second quarter alone, and if they can repeat that against Connecticut, the Huskies are in some trouble.

UConn is only averaging 9.3 points per game in the first half and has dumped a lot of points on the board in the second halves of games.

Connecticut vs. UCF Free Picks

McKenzie Milton has thrown for 2,409 yards and 20 touchdowns this season, but this offense is about a lot more than just one man. There isn't a single running back averaging even 10 carries per game, and 11 different receivers have at least six receptions.

Surely, Milton is going to throw for 300+ yards in this game and lead the Knights to victory, but it seems as if the top online sportsbooks have started to catch up to UCF just a bit. The Knights have failed to cover consecutive games after starting at 5-0-1 ATS, and this feels like a lot of points against a team that is notorious for not giving up even when games are out of hand.

Bryant Shirreffs should have enough in the tank to put three touchdowns on the board against the Knights, and even with the woeful defense he has playing on the other side of the field, this should be more than enough to cover this lofty point spread.

College Football ATS Pick: Take the Points with Connecticut at
College Football Score Prediction: UCF 40, Connecticut 24