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Baylor vs. TCU ATS Picks

Week 13 Football Lines

The Baylor Bears certainly can't wait for this season to be over with. Matt Rhule's team was a certified disaster this year, going just 1-10 with one game left to play with the victory coming against woeful Kansas.

The TCU Horned Frogs are still holding onto slim National Championship hopes. A win against Baylor on Black Friday would setup a second meeting with Oklahoma in the Big XII Championship Game that could end up being a de facto national quarterfinal.

Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Date and Time
: Friday, November 24, 2017, 12 p.m. ET
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Opening College Football Odds: TCU -23.5
Baylor vs. TCU TV Coverage: FOX Sports 1

The Bears have had a whopping 17 true freshmen play for them this year, and quarterback Charlie Brewer became the starting quarterback in the middle of October, and he hasn't looked back. He's got the only win of the season to his credit against KU, and he has a pair of 300+ yard passing games, too.

However, Brewer has had the exact same problems the rest of the Baylor quarterbacks have had this season: He just hasn't had any help whatsoever.

The Bears rank No. 110 in the nation in rushing, and they don't have a back that has gotten to 500 total rushing yards for the season.

Worse is their defense, a unit that has allowed 459.1 yards per game and 35.1 points per game, numbers that are both amongst the worst in America.

It's amazing that it was only a few years ago that Baylor and TCU were both left out of the inaugural College Football Playoff in spite of the fact that both had a great claim to one of the four playoff spots. Whereas Baylor has fallen apart, TCU is once again back on the verge of the playoff.

The Horned Frogs only have two road blemishes this year against Oklahoma and Iowa State. With Oklahoma State losing last week to Kansas State, one has to think that Gary Patterson's crew is going to be at least in the New Year's Six even if it gets beaten by the Sooners a second time.

The TCU defense has been outrageous of late. The team couldn't stop Oklahoma, but if you take that game out, the club has allowed a total of 30 points since October 14.

Key Injury

The Horned Frogs have been awfully coy about the injury that Kenny Hill has. He was a surprise scratch against Texas Tech last week, and Patterson never disclosed what his injury was. But things were so bad for the TCU starting quarterback that he didn't even travel with the team.

Without Hill, freshman Shawn Robinson went 6-for-17 for 85 yards and a touchdown against Texas Tech. It wasn't a great game for Robinson, but he didn't lose the game for the Horned Frogs; that was certainly good enough.

One underrated injury in this game is to kicker Jonathan Song. Song is the main placekicker for the Horned Frogs this year, but he didn't make the trip to the Lubbock either. Cole Bunce kicked in his place last week and made two field goals and was also an adequate substitute. Still, TCU is going to be forced to go for it a lot on fourth downs in this game if Song is out again.

Baylor vs. TCU Free Picks

Baylor obviously isn't going to win this game, but we think it's going to be a live underdog on the college football odds at all of the top online sportsbooks.

The Bears have been slightly more competitive in recent games, losing to Iowa State by 10 and Texas Tech by 14 since beating the Jayhawks. This is a team that also lost to Oklahoma by eight, Kansas State by 13 and West Virginia by two.

The one thing we'll say about Rhule's team is the fact that it's playing hard. The Bears are completely void of talent this year, but these kids that are freshmen are all growing up together.

With the possibility that Hill is going to be out once again this week, there isn't any good reason to be laying 23.5 points with the Horned Frogs.

College Football ATS Pick: Baylor +23.5 at
College Football Score Prediction: TCU 34, Baylor 20