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Baylor vs. Kansas State ATS Picks

NCAAF Week 5 Odds

There are only two teams in the Power Five who have yet to win a game this year. One, of the two, Florida State, has a really good excuse, having lost its starting quarterback against Alabama to start the season and having lost out on playing two games due to Hurricane Irma. The other is the Baylor Bears, who are 0-4 going into their duel against the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday afternoon in the “Little Apple.”

Baylor Bulldogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Date and Time
: Saturday, September 30, 2017, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Opening College Football Odds: Kansas State -14
Baylor vs. Kansas State TV Coverage: ESPN2

Matt Rhule finally got his Bears to play as a team last week against Oklahoma. It’s just too bad that the best game of the year came at a time when even a perfect game probably wasn’t going to ultimately win.

Baylor looked physically overmatched in the fourth quarter of its 49-41 loss, but the club was leading late in the third quarter and had a shot at a big comeback from down 49-31 in the last seven minutes of the game.

It’s clear that sophomore Zach Smith is the right choice under center this year for the Bears. He threw for 463 yards and four touchdowns without throwing a single pick on 50 attempts against an Oklahoma defense that shut down Ohio State at the Horseshoe just a couple weeks ago. This came on the heels of his three touchdowns at Duke.

Kansas State was last on the field against Vanderbilt when it was beaten 14-7. It was a drab game by the offense all around and looked nothing like the team that put up 110 points in games against Central Arkansas and Charlotte.

Now after a week off, the Wildcats are hoping to take care of business in this one heading into the toughest part of the Big 12 schedule. If this one happens to be lost, a team that was once in the Top 25 could easily end up seeing itself at 2-5 and nowhere near even snaring bowl eligibility; the Wildcats are at Texas, then host TCU and Oklahoma through October 21.

Key Stat

6 – The number of dropped passes the Kansas State wide receivers had against Vanderbilt two weeks ago.

This is a very, very young Kansas State receiving corps, and it learned a lesson or two against the Commodores. Vanderbilt hit harder than anything Kansas State had seen this year, and the fact that that game was played on the road in a hostile environment created a lot of opportunities for failure.

Jesse Ertz can’t do this on his own. He’s completing 55.4 percent of his passes this year, and he’s easily the team’s leading rusher as well. But his stats would be a lot better if he had the help of his wide receivers. This is a good opportunity for everyone to rebound on the eve of the worst stretch of the season.

Baylor vs. Kansas State Free Picks

Let’s not buy into Baylor just because it rallied and played a big game against Oklahoma. This is still one of the worst teams in the Power Five conferences this year, and that one good showing at home doesn’t give us any belief that it can go on the road and contend with a Kansas State team that has one of the better defenses in the Big 12.

Assuming that the Wildcats can keep up their stout ways and hold the Bears inside of 20 points or so, they shouldn’t have a problem “catching on” to a victory. All of the best online sportsbooks are making a mistake here by making Kansas State such a short favorite at -14. Take advantage of that and lay the points in what we think is going to be a one-sided romp.

College Football ATS Pick: Kansas State -14 at BookMaker.eu
College Football Score Prediction: Kansas State 38, Baylor 17