Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Georgia Southern Eagles
Date and Time: Wednesday, October 4, 2017, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, GA
Opening College Football Odds: Check Back Later
Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern TV Coverage: ESPN2
The offense for Georgia Southern has been ridiculously bad this season. No man on the team has more than one touchdown, and the club only has 36 points scored in three duels. The offense has averaged just 259.7 yards per game, No. 128 amongst the 130 teams in the nation.
We'd love to say that this is a biproduct of playing against Auburn and Indiana on the road, but it's not like a game against New Hampshire was really any better. Granted, New Hampshire has a strong FCS program, but to lose 22-12 and really get laughed off the field in the home opener was a complete embarrassment.
Even though Arkansas State only has a win against Arkansas Pine Bluff to its credit this year, the team has at least stayed competitive. Its game against Nebraska came right down to the wire, while its trip to SMU was closer than a 44-21 final score would suggest. The Red Wolves are still amongst the Sun Belt favorites this year, and most assume they're going to get off to a strong start in conference play.
Arkansas State should be favored in all of its games from this point forward until running into ULM on the road in November and Troy at home in December, and even those games will have relatively close spreads.
Georgia Southern really is just a one-man team at this point on the offensive side of the ball. Shai Werts leads the team in passing and rushing, and of the 779 total yards of offense this team has amassed, Werts has 409 of them in totality between his arm and his legs.
Of course, it should be noted that coach Tyson Summers has zero desire to have Werts throwing the ball even 15 times per game as he is right now. This is a power running team at its core, and there's a reason why the team has run the ball on 77 percent of its plays this year. Summers would love to get that ratio even higher, but that means Werts has to be smarter with the football and make the right reads on his options. The redshirt freshman hasn't done that this year, and that's why this team is in such bad shape heading into conference play.
Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern Free Picks
Believe us when we say that all of the best online sportsbooks know that Arkansas State is clearly the superior of these two teams. Had the Red Wolves gone out and scheduled nothing but a bunch of dumpster fires in non-conference play to race out to a 3-0 start, they'd be favored by an absolutely huge margin in this one.
Arkansas State can play. Justice Hansen is arguably the top passer in the Sun Belt this year, even as just as junior. He has thrown for 985 yards and 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions against some really good competition this year, and we see no reason why he won't light up the Sun Belt this season.
Georgia Southern's offense just isn't going to have enough to stay competitive in this game. Home field advantage doesn't mean a heck of a lot in this conference, especially not for a Wednesday night game that won't see much aside from students in attendance. We don't think we're going to have a better opportunity to bet on one of the Sun Belt favorites than we have right here.
College Football ATS Pick: Play Arkansas State at BookMaker.eu
College Football Score Prediction: Arkansas State 38, Georgia Southern 14