Air Force Falcons vs. Navy Midshipmen
Date and Time: Saturday, October 7, 2017, 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Opening College Football Odds: Navy -10
Air Force vs. Navy TV Coverage: CBS Sports Network
Air Force really didn't do itself any favors at the outset of the season when it scheduled Michigan, San Diego State and New Mexico in three straight games. Granted, all three teams are a lot better now than most would have suspected when these games were put on the schedule, but the Falcons haven't had any answers on the field for any of them.
Arion Worthman hasn't proven to be nearly as good of a runner or a thrower as we would have hoped at the outset of the season, but we know that he's going to average more than 2.6 yards per carry when push comes to shove. Remember that Air Force has one of the more experienced H-Backs in the nation in Timothy McVey, a man who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry this season without having a single run of 30+ yards to his ledger.
Navy is 4-0, but this hasn't exactly been a world beating squad. The Middies will be tested in these next three games for sure against the Falcons, Memphis and suddenly-ranked UCF.
Still, Zach Abey is playing at an incredibly high level. He's one of the top rushers in the nation with 656 yards and seven touchdowns, and though he hasn't been an accurate passer, he's averaging 13.28 yards per pass attempt on his 29 throws.
Some strange line movement in this game for sure. All of the top 10 sportsbooks will tell you that they made a big mistake in this game by opening up a total at 62. That number has literally come crashing down over the course of the first 24 hours of betting, dipping all the way to 51.5.
But the real concern might be the spread. Air Force is just 1-3, but the early bettors are giving it a real shot in this game in Annapolis.
BookMaker.eu is reporting that just 32 percent of its bets in this game are on the Falcons, yet this point spread has come down from Navy -10 to Navy -7.5. Air Force is about as sharp as it gets with the points, and there is a quiet confidence in Colorado Springs that this game and the Commander-In-Chief Trophy can be won this year.
Air Force vs. Navy Free Picks
This is one of the more intriguing games on the Week 6 docket, and it's one that we think Air Force has the potential to win. Our only concern is if this defense that has struggled so badly against some top competition is going to be able to slow down Abey at the end of a game when it needs a stop.
We're definitely going to take the points, knowing that Air Force has a team that is a lot better than it has shown statistically this season. Yet we can't get away from thinking that Navy is going to find a way to win this game SU.
The home team has won four straight games in this series, and the only times that the away team has found a way to win has been in overtime. That said, most of these games have been awfully close between these two, even when the point spreads haven't been. That's enough for us to go with the visitors and the points.
College Football ATS Pick: Air Force +10 at BookMaker.eu
College Football Score Prediction: Navy 27, Air Force 24