Analytics and launch angles have permeated the game and more than ever players are straying from speed and contact in favor or power and distance. With that, the home run becomes ever more important. The number of players capable of launching balls out of the park with regularity is soaring, making it all the more difficult to pinpoint who will lead the league in home runs in 2019.
BookMaker.eu is the place to go to get in on the MLB futures action, including home run leaders.
From 2013 through 2016 it has been an Oriole topping the list with Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz and Mark Trumbo all taking turns. Over the last two years, Giancarlo Stanton and Khris Davis have powered the way. Will it be a repeat leader in 2019 or will a new face become the home run king?
Odds to Hit Most Home Runs in 2019 at BookMaker
Giancarlo Stanton +700
Aaron Judge +800
JD Martinez +1000
Khris Davis +1000
Joey Gallo +1200
Mike Trout +1500
Bryce Harper +2000
Rhys Hoskins +2000
Nolan Arenado +2500
Matt Olson +3000
Nelson Cruz +4000
Kris Bryant +5500
Manny Machado +5500
Anthony Rizzo +6000
Edwin Encarnacion +6000
Francisco Lindor +6000
Alex Bregman +6500
Jesus Aguilar +6500
Cody Bellinger +7000
Eugenio Suarez +7000
Gary Sanchez +7000
Jose Ramirez +7000
Juan Soto +7000
Justin Upton +7000
Kyle Schwarber +7000
Mike Moustakas +7000
Mookie Betts +7000
Ronald Acuna Jr. +7000
Trevor Story +7000
Hunter Renfroe +7500
Khris Davis paced baseball in home runs last season, belting 48. He sits tied for the third best odds to do it again in 2019 at +1000 alongside J.D. Martinez, the player that finished second in 2018 with 43 dingers.
Those two, along with Rangers’ slugger Joey Gallo, were the only hitters to top 40, interestingly, Gallo sits with his odds of being the home run champion at +1200, right in line with Martinez and Davis.
The only players ahead of those three are a pair of Yankees in Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Both have immense power, but they also have the short porch in right field to help them out.
Stanton was the home run champion with the Marlins in 2017 when he belted 59 in a failed quest to be the first player since the end of the steroid era to reach the 60-plateau. There was thought that moving from less favorable hitters’ park in Miami to the Bronx may help him hit more, particularly with Judge protecting him in the lineup. Unfortunately, that didn’t quote happen. Stanton followed up his 59 with 38 despite getting a few more at bats. Interestingly, that 38 number is still the second most in his career. Nevertheless, Stanton goes into the 2019 season as the favorite.
As for Judge, his odds are at +800, a bit behind the +700 number for Stanton. Judge followed up a Rookie of the Year season with a strong, but injury plagued sophomore campaign.
Judge slammed 52 home runs as a rookie in 2017 to lead the AL and trail only Stanton in all of baseball. In 2018, he managed just 112 games and hit 27 home runs with his slugging percent dropping 100-points. The odds expect health and a bounce back for Judge, but the level he reached in 2017 will be extremely hard to duplicate.
Outside the top-5, there are some more interesting lines for this prop, including Mike Trout at +1500, Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins both at +2000, and Christian Yelich outside the top-30.
Trout was tied for fourth with Jose Ramirez with 39 home runs last year. Trout has far better odds than Ramirez this year at +1500 compared to +7000. The early season loss of Francisco Lindor and lack of additional support in the lineup certainly plays a part.
Speaking of support, Hoskins and Harper having identical odds is intriguing as both could help each other see more pitches to hit.
Hoskins was the lone big bat for Philly last year and hit 34 while Harper had the same number in Washington. Hoskins is certainly better protection for Harper than Ryan Zimmerman was with the Nationals. Meanwhile, both will enjoy a much improved Phillies lineup that will include Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura and R.T. Realmuto, taking pressure off both and likely opening them up to thrive more.
Nelson Cruz is the oldest player in the top-30 and sits No.11 in the odds at +4000. He’s moving to Minnesota which may be a better place to hit Seattle. He’s got age against him, but has yet to show any signs of regression in his power after he hit 37 last year. He’s led the league in homers before and is an interesting candidate to do it again.
LONGSHOTS TO WATCH
When it comes to a prop bet like this, there are underdogs and longshots abound. Any player is, technically, a candidate. A lot of this will depend on health and, in some cases, playing time. You’d think someone capable of leading the league in homers wouldn’t have to worry about playing time, but Chris Carter led the NL in homers a few years back and struggled finding a job the year after.
This game is also quickly becoming skewed towards the younger players. Guys are making their debuts and having monster seasons like Judge a couple years ago or Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto this past season. Both are interesting candidates. Typically, second year players will regress a bit as the league adjusts. That happened to Judge, but neither got a full year last year. If they can maintain their pace over a full 162 game slate, they both could be amongst the top in homers hit in 2019.
Both Acuna Jr. and Soto are listed amongst the top-30 candidates this season, but both have odds at +7000, well below those of the likes of Stanton, Judge or even Cruz.
Going outside the top-30, potential longshot candidates to keep an eye on are Paul Goldschmidt and his new teammate Marcell Ozuna. These two could see a similar effect to the one we noted in Philadelphia.
Ozuna hit 37 home runs when he had Stanton in the same lineup and he’s going into his age-28 season so there could be more in the tank.
As for Goldschmidt, he was No.20 last year with 33 bombs, but delivered those despite being ice cold through the first month and a half of the season. If he’s playing as well as he did the rest of the way all year, he could put up insane numbers at Busch Stadium.
The Cubs’ Javier Baez is another option. Both Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are in the top-30 in odds, but Baez was the one that hit the most homers for Chicago last year at 34.
It’s hard to land one just one player with such a wide pool of choices, but the newest Philly will certainly enjoy hitting in a stacked lineup with strong support behind him. The shorter porches in the City of Brotherly Love are helpful, too.
Some players struggle to live up to the pressure of a big contract like the one Harper signed, but he’s got so much support around him in the order that he’s primed for a big year.
Nolan Arenado often gets overlooked, but he’s got the advantage of swinging it in Coors Field. He, too, just signed a massive contract and could show his appreciation to the Rockies for the extension by taking his game—particularly in terms of power—to the next level.
Davis and Gallo are two more great choices though J.D. Martinez may be the pick.
Martinez has hit 72 home runs since he was traded away from Detroit, including 43 last year. He’s primarily a DH that’s shown he’s offense doesn’t suffer when he’s not in the field. That allows his legs to stay fresh, giving him a strong base from which to generate his power throughout the year.
Over the last two years, his game has really elevated and he’s in a position that he can opt-out of his contract at the end of the year. He’ll be motivated to put up a monster year.
Access live betting from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today!