What if November 3rd comes and goes and the 2020 U.S. Presidential election still hasn’t been decided? There is a real chance that could happen because of mail voting. Let’s look at this issue and U.S. Presidential odds.
What if November 3rd comes and goes and the 2020 U.S. Presidential election still hasn’t been decided? There is a real chance that could happen because of mail voting. Many United States election officials have said that it may take days to count the surge in ballots that they expect through the mail because of the coronavirus pandemic. If the 2020 Presidential election is close, it could be that a winner is not determined for many days. Let’s look at this issue and the latest U.S. Presidential odds.
2020 U.S. Presidential Election Odds (BookMaker.eu)
Donald Trump -112
Joe Biden +106
Hillary Clinton +6000
Mike Pence +10000
Andrew Cuomo +13000
Bernie Sanders +13500
Michelle Obama +17500
Nikki Haley +22000
Kamala Harris +23000
Elizabeth Warren +30000
Amy Klobuchar +30000
Mail Voting Concerns
Not only could we have an election where the winner is not determined for days after the official election date, we could have court challenges of mail-in voting fraud. President Trump has recently said that he has serious concerns about mail-in voting and there are many other Republican leaders that share his concern. What hasn’t been talked about by most leaders is the fact that the election may not be decided on November 3rd. “It may be several days before we know the outcome of the election,” Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s Democratic secretary of state, said to the media, “We have to prepare for that now and accept that reality.”
Republicans should also be prepared for a delay in results. Frank LaRose, Ohio’s secretary of state said that people will need to be patient. “We’ve gotten accustomed to this idea that by the middle of the evening of election night, we’re going to know all the results,” LaRose said to the media, “Election night reporting may take a little longer.”
Trump has already said that mail balloting will lead to a “rigged” election and he is not the only one expressing concern. “It’s very problematic,” said Rick Hasen, a University of California-Irvine law professor to the media, “There is already so much anxiety about this election because of the high levels of polarization and misinformation.”
In theory, mail balloting sounds like a good idea so that people don’t have to go out and risk any coronavirus exposure, but it is not that simple. Many states accept ballots after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked before the polls closed and some states have laws that prohibit counting mail ballots until Election Day and that will slow down vote counting.
If you think that mail voting can’t change an election you would be wrong. In 2018 it was Republican Martha McSally leading a congressional race before mail-in ballots had been counted. A week later she ended up losing the race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema by more than two percentage points.
Because of the coronavirus there are more states pushing for mail voting. Pennsylvania is one of those states pushing voters to vote early by mail. Four years ago only 4.6% of the voters voted by mail or voted early, but that number is expected to be much higher this year. Pennsylvania officials have already said that if they are not allowed to count mail ballots before Election Day there is no way they can call a winner.
Who Does Mail Voting Help?
There is no question that mail voting should help Joe Biden against President Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election. Most experts believe that Biden has the edge with older people and those who are more fearful of going out and those people would be the most likely to vote by mail. If the election comes down to mail-in ballots then Trump is likely in trouble.
What could help Trump in the fall is the economy. That sounds weird to say but because the economy is so bad now, it will only get better and Trump is likely to benefit from good economic numbers in November. The unemployment rate is at an all-time high because of the coronavirus, but those numbers are going to come down as people get back to work. There are five monthly job reports between now and November and the numbers should improve each month.
Trump is still trusted by more people to handle the economy than Biden and there is no question a major Trump campaign selling point will be that he built the greatest economy in world history once and he can do it again. He will be able to say that he is producing the fastest job growth in history and that he has a track record of economic success. Five months is still a lot of time and much could happen before the 2020 U.S. Presidential election and we all know just how fast things can change in today’s world.
Check out the latest U.S. Election odds at your favorite online sportsbook.