Florida vs. Virginia Orange Bowl Analysis

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PUBLISHED: Thursday, December 26th, 2019
LAST UPDATE: 04:47 pm, Thu, December 26, 2019

Florida vs. Virginia Orange Bowl Analysis
Closing out Monday’s bowl slate will be the No. 9 ranked Florida Gators out of the SEC and the No. 24 ranked Virginia Cavaliers out of the ACC. Bet the Orange Bowl at the online sportsbook.

Date & Time
December 30th, 2019 8:00pm
Location
Hard Rock Stadium - Miami, FL
Media Coverage
ESPN
Teams

Closing out Monday’s bowl slate will be the No. 9 ranked Florida Gators out of the SEC and the No. 24 ranked Virginia Cavaliers out of the ACC. As good Dan Mullen’s Gators were in 2019, they still couldn’t solve the riddle that was the Georgia Bulldogs in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” for the third straight season. Because of it, they finished second in the SEC East and won’t have to travel too far from home to the Orange Bowl. The Wahoos went on to win nine games in the regular season and will be out to earn Bronco Mendenhall a second bowl win as head coach since making Charlottesville his home back in 2016. UVA finds itself installed huge 14.5-point underdogs at online sportsbooks in its first ever appearance in the Orange Bowl with the total clocking in at 55. Catch it all unfold live on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, December 30.

College Football Odds

Virginia +14.5

Florida -14.5

Over/Under 55

Florida vs. Virginia Betting Analysis

Linemakers originally opened this game up with Florida installed 13.5-point favorites and the total pegged for 54 points. There’s been line movement with both the side and total since. Florida has received the lion’s share of interest from the betting markets with 73 percent of the bet count and 80 percent of the handle eating the chalk with the Gators. Because of it, linemakers have been forced to boost Florida up to 14.5-point favorites in hopes of attracting some more interest on Virginia. So far, it hasn’t taken with most of the action already booked coming from sharp money accounts. Though 68 percent of the bet count has come in on the over in early betting forcing the O/U to move north, a majority of the money has come in on the under so it looks like sharps are battling it out with public bettors when it comes to the total.

Florida Gators Odds

It was another successful campaign in Gainesville under Mullen’s watch. Florida went on to win 10 of its 12 overall games and covered the closing college football odds in eight of them. Unfortunately, the two defeats to the Georgia Bulldogs and LSU Tigers still let it be known that the Gators still aren’t at a point in the program to compete against the best of the best in the College Football Playoff. That said, Florida already has a 24-20 win under its belt against the same Miami Hurricanes squad that defeated the Cavaliers by a 17-9 final count back in Week 7. As good UVA’s offense proved to be at times this season, it was simply shut down by the Canes stout defense. The Gators rank out similarly on that side of the ball ranked No. 10 overall and No. 9 in points allowed. It won’t be easy for Virginia’s offense to succeed should the Gators pack their “A” game for Miami.

Virginia Cavaliers Odds

The Cavaliers were night and day different when playing at home as opposed to the road. When in the comforts of Scott Stadium, Bryce Perkins and company went undefeated in winning all seven games and covering the closing pointspread at a 4-2-1 clip. It got real ugly on the road however with the squad incurring three losses in five tries while going 2-3 ATS. And then there was the 62-17 pounding absorbed by Clemson in the ACC title game that saw them come nowhere close to covering the 29-point closing spread. UVA has no real semblance of a running game save for Perkins’ scrambling abilities. The offense lives and dies with its ability to move the ball through the air. That’s why they had such a hard time against Clemson who owns the top ranked pass defense in the country. Florida checks in at No. 18, so this could turn into another one-sided beat down should the Cavaliers go down big early.

Orange Bowl Prediction

As great a campaign the Gators put forth, it ultimately didn’t amount to much. The program had larger expectations for 2019, but came up short of reaching those goals. With that, just how determined and focused will Florida be to show up for this game? Stud cornerback CJ Henderson has already stated he’s skipping this game to prepare for his NFL Draft workouts. On the flipside, Virginia has absolutely nothing to lose by coming out strong and it also has some NFL talent partaking in its final game at the collegiate level. As popular a side the Gators look to be in this matchup with both public and sharp bettors, Florida will no doubt check in as one of the bigger liabilities of the bowl season for those booking the bets. I expect to be on their side come kick-off, but will sit back and wait to see just how much higher the line steams before getting involved.