Broncos vs. Chiefs ATS Picks

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PUBLISHED: Thursday, December 3rd, 2020
LAST UPDATE: 12:17 pm, Thu, December 3, 2020

Broncos vs. Chiefs ATS Picks
The Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City has owned Denver recently, winning the last 10 meetings and the Chiefs are big favorites to make it 11 in a row. Let’s look at Sunday Night Football Odds and Picks.

Date & Time
December 6th, 2020 8:20pm
Location
Arrowhead Stadium
Media Coverage
NBC
Teams

The Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Chiefs have looked every bit the part of defending Super Bowl champs this season and come into this game at 10-1, while the Broncos are 4-7. There is no reason to think this game will be competitive unless the Chiefs have a letdown. Kansas City has owned Denver recently, winning the last 10 meetings and the Chiefs are big favorites to make it 11 in a row on Sunday. Let’s look at Sunday Night Football and NFL picks.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Date and Time: Sunday, December 6, 2020, 8:20 p.m. ET

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Week 13 NFL Odds: Chiefs -13.5, 50.5

Broncos vs. Chiefs TV Coverage: NBC

The Broncos haven’t had any success against the Chiefs in a long time, as you have to go back to Week 2 of the 2015 season for their last win. There is nothing about these two teams this season that has you expecting Denver to keep this game close. The Broncos are poor on offense, ranking 27th in the league in yards and they are next to last in scoring offense. The Chiefs are first in yards per game and second in points per game. Denver is decent on defense, ranking 11th in overall defense but they are just 24th in scoring defense. Kansas City is just 18th in overall defense, but they are 6th in scoring defense.

Key Matchup

The Broncos have to put pressure on Mahomes or they have no chance to win this game. Denver’s secondary is without their top cornerback Bryce Callahan, so the pass rush has to get to Mahomes or Denver will get routed. It is always dangerous to pressure a quarterback like Mahomes, but it is the only chance Denver has because their secondary can’t hold up if Mahomes has time to throw. Keep an eye on the Denver front four in this game as they go against the Kansas City offensive line.

Key Trends

Denver is 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Broncos are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. the AFC West. The Chiefs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. The Chiefs are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Chiefs are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 vs. the AFC West. The Under is 11-3-1 in the Broncos last 15 vs. the AFC West. The Over is 4-1 in the Chiefs last 5 vs. the AFC West. Three of the last five meetings in Kansas City have gone over the total.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Free Pick

We have a definite conundrum in this game. The public is going to be all over the Chiefs in this game, but there is no real reason to take Denver plus the points, as the stats and trends are in favor of Kansas City. The wiseguys may take the points simply because of the high pointspread, but do I really want to take a Denver team that has no real chance to win?  The Broncos are not good enough on offense to score a lot of points so if you take the Broncos you have to hope their defense can hold down Mahomes and company. It seems unlikely. If Denver is going to stay in this game it will be due to the Chiefs taking the game lightly and having a letdown. Is that possible?  Yes. If the Broncos had Callahan in the secondary then I might take a chance with Denver plus the big points. I just don’t see any way they can make up for his loss. Their secondary simply isn’t good enough or deep enough to make up for his absence. I am never thrilled about laying double-digits in the NFL, but I just can’t take the Broncos in this contest. I will lay the points and take Kansas City in this game.

Broncos vs. Chiefs Week 13 ATS Pick: Chiefs -13.5

Check out the latest Week 13 odds at top online sportsbooks.