Since 2000, the New England Patriots have owned the AFC East. Only three times over that 18 year stretch has a team other than the Pats won the division. To little surprise, Bill Belichick is once again heavily favored to lead New England to yet another AFC East title ( -630 ) even though his defensive coordinator ( Matt Patricia ) has moved on to test his mettle as a head coach. That scenario has occurred numerous times in the past, yet the Pats still found a way to get the job done. The Buffalo Bills ( +900 ) returned to the playoffs for the first time since 1999 a season ago, but much has changed within the team that finally ended the league’s longest playoff drought. The Miami Dolphins ( +1200 ) and New York Jets ( +1350 ) combined to win 11 games last season. Their combined season win total checks in at 12.5. Neither has what it takes to dethrone the Patriots.
New England Patriots -630
Buffalo Bills +900
Miami Dolphins +1200
New York Jets +1350
The Patriots have won 10 or more games each of the last 12 seasons. On top of that, they’ve taken care of their betting backers even though they’re the most public team in the league. Even after getting out to a 2-2 straight up start a season ago, “The Hoodie” still managed to coach the team to 13 wins and an even more impressive 11-5 record against the linemakers in the regular season. This is the NFL dynasty of the 21st Century regardless of whether you want to accept it or not. In this day and age of the NFL, it’s all about the offense and boy does the “Brady Bunch” got it going on! Tom can get the job done with anyone, so there’s no need to worry about the offense. However, the defense is of concern coming off a season in which it ranked amongst the bottom third in total yards, rushing yards and passing yards allowed. Not much was brought in to rectify the situation, so expect New England to partake in plenty more shootouts. Best of luck if you decide to fade the Pats and hit under 11 on the season win total. Continue
The Bills were a fun team to watch last season. Actually, let me take that back. They were about as exciting as watching paint dry, but the way they went about their business in the first year of the Sean McDermott regime was enough to punch their ticket to the playoffs. This is a team that ran the snot out of the football ( No. 6 ), didn’t turn the ball over and forced a ton of opponent miscues ( 25 ). The formula allowed Buffalo to win nine regular season games and beat the linemakers 10 times including the playoff loss to the Jaguars. While the defense returns mostly intact and plugged some much needed holes, it’s a good bet they won’t be able to take advantage of the same +9 turnover differential this time around. Not with A.J. McCarron or rookie Josh Allen navigating the offense. The betting market is likely right for being bearish evidenced by the -121 juice attached to their 6.5 game win total. Continue
The Dolphins shocked many a NFL pundit a couple years back when they went 10-6 ( 9-7 ATS ) and punched their ticket to the playoffs via the wild card. They then went on to get slaughtered by the Steelers. Miami was able to take advantage of an easy schedule in Adam Gase’s head coaching debut, and ended up paying for it when it mattered most. Last season, they took on a much tougher slate. That paired with a slew of injuries saw them finish up 6-10 overall and a bankroll depleting 5-9-2 against the spread. They currently have a season win total of 6.5 with -122 juice hitting the under. The betting market isn’t a fan of the team this year, and neither is their fan base. Ndamukong Suh and Jarvis Landry are gone. Ryan Tannehill is back, but will he be enough to combat the team’s -14 turnover differential from a year ago? The defense does have some talented pieces after upper management drafted hard on that side of the ball. Hitting Miami unders might be the most lucrative route to take throughout 2018-19. Continue
New York Jets New York went over its season win total of three after winning five games last year. Todd Bowles’ squad faces a 6 game win total heading into 2018-19. There’s no urgency for the Jets to win at this point in time. The rebuild is in its infancy, so don’t expect the team to be leaps and bounds better than they were a year ago. There’s a ton of new faces on the offensive side of the ball, and in all honesty, the talent level is pretty legit. Josh McCown was better than adequate a season ago in throwing for nearly 3,000 yards to go along with an 18:9 TD/INT ratio. If he can mimic or better those numbers with his retooled cast of offensive playmakers, New York should greatly improve upon its meager overall offensive stats from a year ago. The Jets won’t be sniffing the division title, but they could offer up some value from a pointspread perspective on a game to game basis much like they did a year ago. Still, it’s a stretch to expect them to surpass their current win total. Continue
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Overview of what the National Football League AFC divisional teams added and lost in the off-season, along with witch 2018 AFC divisional teams will be tough to beat. As well, a recap of last season and some wagering advice will also be included.
Overview of what the National Football League NFC divisional teams added and lost in the off-season, along with witch 2018 NFC divisional teams will be tough to beat. As well, a recap of last season and some wagering advice will also be included.
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