Yes, these are two defensive minded football teams, a fact that is reflected by this low NFL lines total. However, the 49rs have been much improved offensively vs. weaker clubs, with quarterback Alex Smith being at his best when the running game is clicking.
Furthermore, the Rams’ offense should get a boost thanks to the bye, as wide receiver Danny Amendola is now probable after recovering from a dislocated clavicle sustained back in Week 5.
Current Line at Bookmaker:
San Francisco 49ers: -11
When we last saw the 49ers, they picked apart the Arizona Cardinals 24-3 in a Monday night game two weeks ago with Alex Smith having one of the most efficient NFL lines passing games you will ever see, completing a remarkable 18-of-19 passes for 232 yards and three touchdowns. He did that despite a rather quiet night from the San Francisco running backs, as the Niners ran for 113 yards on 29 carries.
San Francisco still leads the NFL in rushing offense at 168.4 yards per game, as well as in rushing average at an outstanding 5.6 yards per carry, and we look for a return to that form here with two weeks to prepare. If the 49ers are as successful as we expect running the ball, that would set up Smith to work on a 19th ranked St. Louis pass defense allowing 239.6 yards per game through the air.
Moreover, the St Louis defense has gotten worse as the season has gone on, as the Rams lost their last two game by scores of 30-20 at home to Green Bay and 45-7 to New England in London.
Now we totally get that Alex Smith will never be confused with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, but our real point is that the Rams’ best defensive games came against Seattle ( rookie quarterback ), Arizona ( Kevin Kolb ) and Miami ( rookie quarterback ), so their pass defense may not be as good as its 19th ranking.
Amendola should serve a big role for the Rams provided he returns on the NFL lines, as he was leading the NFL in receptions at the time he went down vs. Arizona. He has 32 catches in a little over four games while averaging 12.3 yards per reception, and while he is not a speed-burner that will beat you deep, he is the perfect possession receiver for catching underneath routes on quick releases.
That should happen quite a bit with the great San Francisco defensive line overpowering a suspect St. Louis offensive line to put pressure on quarterback Sam Bradford.
Prediction: Now, we are not calling for an NFL lines shootout by any means, but with the extra preparation time for both teams and Amendola’s return for St. Louis, look for these clubs to score just enough to go ‘over’ the low total.
Take the St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers to go ‘over’ Sunday
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